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In the Russian Federation, a split within the "elite" has become evident due to the Kremlin’s recent decisions. Moscow’s decision to impose restrictions and block internet access has sparked the most outrage.
Recently, criticism of this policy has been observed even in the Russian press, which is usually extremely loyal to the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin in particular. This conclusion can be drawn from a recent column by columnist Mikhail Rostovsky, published in the Kremlin-affiliated newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets. The author notes that restrictions on messaging apps affect private communications and are being introduced without sufficient explanation. This leaves citizens feeling pressured and misunderstood. According to him, such actions by the Kremlin are creating a conflict model in which ordinary Russians are simply looking for ways to circumvent the blockages, while the authorities, instead of providing clarification and compromise, are tightening controls and restrictions. "Due to the state’s less than elegant actions, many of these convinced and motivated people are in a state of extreme bewilderment," the publication says. Rostovsky also points out that this policy is undermining the previously high level of support for the government, as even its most loyal supporters are beginning to doubt the measures being taken. According to him, Russia is at a dangerous point and regularly experiences a kind of "crash test." recall, on Feb. 24, 2022, Russian tanks rolled across the Russia-Ukraine border as Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Experts including George Beebe of the Quincy Institute believe that at that time, Putin was aiming to demonstrate to NATO and the West what Russia’s role in the European security order “ought to look like,” while others, such as Angela Stent of the American Enterprise Institute believe that Putin’s goals included a regime change in Kyiv, with the subjugation of Ukraine. Five years in, multiple Western experts concur with Stent that Putin has not achieved that goal. According to Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya of CSIS, however, Putin still believes that Russia is winning the war of attrition—and that, eventually, “it can overpower and outlast Ukraine.” If this duo is correct in their assessment of Putin’s calculations, then that could explain why some of their fellow scholars believe Russia’s engagement in the negotiations with Ukraine is not genuine. The University of Chicago’s John Mearsheimer, writing this month, argues “there is no way you can negotiate a genuine peace settlement to this conflict,” and calls the current peace negotiations “basically Kabuki Theater.” The Economist’s Editorial Board is skeptical that any peace plan will “satisfy Russia.” Last but not least, James Gilmore, former U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, said “the objectives of Russia and Ukraine are so diametrically opposed that it’s not realistic to expect a breakthrough.”
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