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İsrael and Iran have continued to exchange strikes in their latest conflict. There has been angry rhetoric from both sides, and US President Donald Trump is now considering whether to join Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Experts are already warning: if the war expands, it could be accompanied not only by missiles, but also by a large influx of refugees and destabilization in the region. Iran has land borders with 7 countries. Each of these neighbors has a unique role in geopolitical terms, and the first wave of military, social, and humanitarian crises that may occur within Iran could touch the borders of these countries. Iran’s neighbors and border lengths, according to Musavat medi aoutlet: Iraq – 1,599 km. Iran’s longest border. It could be the first stop for refugees from Iran due to both religious and ethnic affinities. In addition, Iran’s military bases and proxy groups are located in Iraq. War could create a second front here. Turkmenistan, which also shares a 1,148 km border with the Caspian Sea, could face refugee threats and economic disruptions in this direction. Although official Ashgabat prefers neutrality in relations with Iran, the impact of the war could weaken economic ties. Pakistan. Instability in the border zone located 959 km southeast of Iran – smuggling, religious extremism and poverty – could turn this line into an uncontrolled area. At the same time, there is a possibility of a potential refugee flow from the Balochistan region of Iran. Afghanistan – 921 km. Afghanistan itself is far from stable, under Taliban rule. If war breaks out, Iran’s eastern border could become a new artery for radical groups and the flow of weapons. Turkey – 534 km. This is the most stable and secure border for the flow of refugees from Iran to Turkey. Turkey, which has been a major transit and settlement country for Syrian and Afghan refugees for years, may be tested by whether it is ready for a new wave from Iran. Azerbaijan – 765 km. Azerbaijan is the only country with both a land border and direct ethnic ties with Iran. Millions of Azerbaijani citizens of Iran live on the southern side of the border. In the event of a war, Azerbaijan could face not only border violations and refugee flows, but also ideological and informational pressure from the Tehran regime. In particular, the 132 km border with Nakhchivan is strategically at the center of attention. Armenia. Although it is the shortest border with Iran at 44 km, it is also one of the most sensitive geopolitical corridors. This route, which is an important part of the Russia-Armenia-Iran transport route, could become a crossroads of geopolitical tensions in the event of war. Iraq may receive the first wave due to religious and ethnic affinity, open borders. Turkey the most attractive migration destination due to stability, infrastructure and humanitarian opportunities. Azerbaijan is open to the impact of war in terms of both geographical and ethnic ties. However, the closure of Azerbaijan’s land borders is considered a strategic step. From this perspective, the impact is significantly reduced. Pakistan and Afghanistan as they are chaotic regions, war can be a place for both refugees and armed groups.
Turkmenistan although the borders are controlled, tensions in the northeastern region of Iran could also threaten this direction.
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