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Four days on, and Ukraine is still digesting the full implications of Operation Spider’s Web, Sunday’s massive assault on Russia’s strategic aviation.
The agency which orchestrated the attack, the Security Service of Ukraine, released additional, vivid footage of the attacks in progress, as well as tantalising glimpses into how the whole complex operation was conducted.
Satellite images that have emerged since Sunday, showing the wrecked outlines of planes sitting on the tarmac at the Olenya, Ivanovo, Dyagilevo and Belaya airbases, also help tell the story of the operation’s unprecedented success. For Ukrainian observers, the whole operation, a year-and-a-half in the making, remains a marvel.
Brian Krassenstein, a renowned political analyst says that this kind of operation, conducted this deep inside enemy territory, using mobile disguised platforms, has never been done before. “Not at this scale. Not with this level of impact. Russia just lost a significant chunk of its long-range bomber fleet. And unlike missiles, bombers aren’t quickly replaceable”, he said. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a defense analyst at the Information Resistance Group think tank offers a sober view of the situation, distinguishing between the impact on the battlefield situation and on the enemy’s potential for terrorist attacks. He emphasizes that the affected aircraft are not the ground attack or fighter platforms that have a direct impact on the frontline situation. “I would not reckon this a turning point of the war, because we are not talking about combat aircraft that are actively used on the front line. We are talking about the aircraft that were mainly used to terrorize the civilian population – bombing cities in deep rear areas of Ukraine and delivering strikes on energy and civilian infrastructures.”
Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI,” points out that successes on the battlefield are the foundation for diplomatic victories, and it is politicians and diplomats who should “consolidate” on the diplomatic front the successes achieved by our military on the battlefield. Political scientist Serhii Taran complements this picture with an analysis of how the operation will affect the general perception of Russia in the world. Talk about Russia winning its war against Ukraine will decrease, as will fears of it hypothetically launching a war against the West. “However, it is much more important that confidence in Ukraine’s capabilities will create a positive context for support – they in the West tend to help not the weak, but those who know how to win.” Taran notes with a hint of irony that the fall of Russia’s image as a powerful military force "will make everyone happy, even Comrade Xi will be happy, although he will not tell anyone about it."
Valery Romanenko, an aviation expert, completes the picture, emphasizing that the Russians have lost not just aircraft, but the “illusion of security”: “There simply aren’t many airfields in Russia that can accommodate such planes… Theoretically, the surviving planes can be redeployed to Olenya, Mozdok, or Seryshevo, but even there they are not safe from attacks. There is no longer a safe airbase.” According to Romanenko, Operation Spiderweb has busted the myth about invulnerability, because “the war has come to Engels, to Belaya, to Vladivostok.” Ukraine has demonstrated the ability to deliver pinpoint strikes that change the geopolitical balance.” Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt said: “Not even the 007 movies managed to come up with something like this.” Former U.S. Army Commander in Europe Ben Hodges endorsed Ukraine’s strategy with an apt military aphorism: “Better to kill the Archer instead of trying to stop all of the Arrows!”. US Congressman Don Bacon also commented briefly: “Putin sowed the wind and is now reaping the whirlwind.”
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