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Today, there is important news from the Black Sea.
Here, Ukraine is relentlessly targeting Russian ships, and now even their naval escorts are not safe. The strikes caused panic among the Russian High command, prompting them to abandon the idea of protection oil exports, and solidify the retreat from the Black Sea.
Recently, Russia has been forced to abandon naval escort operations in the Black Sea, effectively admitting that it cannot adequately secure its maritime exports. The fleet’s current condition limits its ability to conduct escort missions because there are too few operational vessels. Moreover, the defenses of Russian warships are insufficient against long-range strikes and naval drones. In addition to the ship shortage, the overall combat training is inadequate to prepare the Russian marines against Ukrainian strikes. While the fleet still includes capable marines, there have been instances where even minor mistakes have resulted in reassignment to frontline assault units, leaving the Russian navy with incompetent sailors. These factors all contributed to the bad state of the Russian navy, which is now unable to protect themselves against strikes, let alone escort other vessels.
This is particularly crucial at this time when sustained Ukrainian strikes hit shadow fleet tankers and Russian naval assets one by one in Sevastopol and Novorossiysk. According to Russian authorities, a Liberian-flagged tanker with Russian oil exports was attacked in Russian territorial waters, resulting in injuries to its captain. Ukrainian long-range drones also struck two large landing ships in Sevastopol, which were used to transport troops and armored vehicles. The destruction of radars in Crimea has also contributed to both the damage of the ships in Sevastopol, but also to the limited Russian capability to protect its maritime operations.
Because of the lack of escort ships and limited radar coverage, Russian tankers and cargo ships remain vulnerable, leading to the collapse of its Black Sea export routes. Russia relies heavily on these routes because approximately twenty percent of the country’s seaborne crude oil exports and eighty percent of its maritime grain shipments go through here.
The deeper issue for the current situation is rooted in Russia’s domestic shipbuilding sector, which lacks the capacity to replace losses at scale. Russian military analysts complain that only a small number of shipyards can support the bare minimum needs of the Russian fleet, and even these face persistent delays, as Western sanctions have cut off access to critical imported components, including diesel engines, advanced electronics, and specialized machine tools. Much of the shipbuilding infrastructure dates back to the Soviet era and has not been modernized, further essentially rendering impossible Russia’s ability to replace losses. This restricts the ability to exert power over seas, with the biggest problems happening with dry docks, heavy-lift cranes, and production lines. Compounding this is a shortage of skilled personnel, particularly engineers and welders, many of whom have been mobilized, further degrading output and quality. As a result, each lost Russian vessel carries significant strategic weight, as the system in place is unable to replace it in a timely or effective manner.
Because of the lack of ships, Russia is forced to reduce its oil exports and absorb losses in revenue. With its inability to build and replace naval vessels, existing ships have become more valuable than the oil they help export. Notably, oil products are abundant, and Russia can export more in the future, but if a ship is lost, Russia is currently unable to replace it, which further reduces its power projection capabilities.
Despite all limitations, some Russian Black Sea export capability has persisted, and Ukraine carried out a large-scale strike on Tuapse to cut it off as well. Ukrainian long-range drones targeted the oil refinery in Tuapse and ignited major fires. Subsequent strikes hit both the refinery and the adjacent export terminal, setting multiple storage tanks ablaze and sending thick black smoke over the area, indicating significant damage. These attacks followed earlier strikes on the same facility, showing a sustained effort to degrade its operational capacity. Additional nighttime strikes involving Liutyi kamikaze drones intensified the damage, with at least two fuel tanks confirmed to be burning. Ukrainian Special Operations Forces also struck terminal infrastructure, damaging loading equipment, pipelines, and storage facilities, with fires continuing for days. Tuapse processed approximately two hundred thousand barrels per day, and by destroying it, Ukraine reduced the already constrained capacity.
