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Ukraine has been using long-range drones and missiles to target key areas of Russia’s energy industry, including oil terminals and refineries, in a bid to put financial pressure on the Kremlin and curb funding for its war machine. Moscow’s oil and gas sector is estimated to fund as much as 20% country’s GDP on average.
While Ukraine began targeting energy infrastructure much earlier in the conflict, the strikes have ramped up in recent weeks, causing gas shortages and sending prices soaring in Russia. Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign has been a bright spot for Kyiv in what has otherwise largely been a grinding war of attrition. It has also used long-range drones and missiles to target important Russian military sites, including air bases, weapons production factories, and ammunition storage facilities.
Forbes reports that Ukraine is strengthening its position amid the war by launching a series of strategic strikes against Russian oil refineries. These attacks not only reduce Moscow’s revenues but also create additional opportunities for Ukraine to exert pressure on the Kremlin during potential peace talks.
Over the summer, Ukrainian long-range drones attacked more than ten oil refineries across Russia. According to reports, approximately 17% of Russia’s oil refining capacity—approximately 1.1 million barrels per day—was disabled in August.
The Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk refineries came under attack, shutting down key distillation units, while the Volgograd refinery in the south of the country completely ceased operations. Many facilities were targeted multiple times.
Ukraine uses domestically produced "Lyuty" attack drones, upgraded to a range of over 2,000 km and equipped with artificial intelligence systems. This allows it to operate independently of foreign partners and overcome Russian electronic warfare systems. The attacks triggered fuel shortages and record gasoline prices in Russia. Moscow was forced to restrict exports, which hit oil revenues and forced foreign customers to seek alternative suppliers.
At the same time, the Kremlin is spending significant resources on repairing damaged facilities and strengthening their defenses. This diverts resources from military needs.
Despite massive expenditures on the summer offensive, Russian forces achieved minimal results, suffering significant losses in equipment and personnel. Ukrainian FPV drones are destroying armored vehicles, while fortified Ukrainian positions and river barriers are limiting their advance.
Russian missile and drone campaigns have also failed to produce a breakthrough: modernized Shaheds have become more expensive, but they continue to be shot down en masse by Ukrainian air defenses.
Analysts believe that Russia’s financially debilitating situation strengthens Ukraine’s position: The Kremlin’s income is falling; war costs are rising; strategic goals are achieved minimally.
"This situation will likely force Russian leaders back to the negotiating table due to growing domestic discontent coupled with international pressure. If Ukraine manages to maintain this initiative, which undermines Russia’s military power and economic stability, it will enter these negotiations with a strong hand," the publication writes.
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