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Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has no intention of plunging Belarus into a real state of war, because he doesn’t need it. Ukrainian analyst and journalist Sergei Garmash stated this on Kyiv 24 . The expert noted that the security situation is currently "escalating." "Lukashenko is starting to threaten with nuclear weapons. Which, by the way, he doesn’t control: the button remains in Moscow, if it even exists in Belarus," the expert explained. Moreover, Garman added, Lukashenko is preparing his own roads that extend into Ukrainian territory, and, in his opinion, this is being done with Russian money. And it’s not necessary that military equipment will travel along these roads. "I don’t think Lukashenko is going to fight. He doesn’t need it. He’s already seen the consequences of this situation for Russia. Moreover, Lukashenko is now distancing himself from Russia," the analyst said. Garmash also noted that Russian businesses are moving to Belarus, which is a "country of freedom" compared to Russia. "I think Lukashenko has his own game. But right now it’s more focused on the United States than on Russia or Ukraine. He’ll later say, ‘The Russians built something, they gave us weapons, but I stood my ground, and I’m with you, Donald,’" he noted. Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that Russia is again attempting to draw Belarus into a war with Ukraine. According to intelligence, roads are being built into Ukrainian territory and artillery positions are being established in the Belarusian border zone.
Military expert Ivan Timochko notes that the Belarusians lack the real skills to conduct military operations independently, and most of their weapons have long since been transferred to the Russian army. "Belarus isn’t a country with any military history. This is very important these days… They have no combat experience or any real skills to conduct independent military operations. Moreover, most of their weapons were long ago transferred to the Russian army," he noted.
At the same time, Timochko noted that part of the Belarusian army was trained by Russian Wagner battalions, and some of the command staff and officers in Belarus were trained by Russians. "There’s also the important point that Belarus, even territorially, isn’t a country that could have the depth of its territory to be confident that, having formed a high-quality rear base to strengthen its offensive forces, it would be able to fight for a long time," the expert said. Moreover, he added, Belarus does not have a large army, and mobilization would mean "giving weapons to those Belarusian citizens who, until recently, were tortured, beaten, and, for many, had their relatives killed by Russian and Belarusian security forces." "Therefore, there will also be a question about the motivation of those people who will even be mobilized to carry out some kind of multi-stage offensive operation," Timochko emphasized. He also noted that Belarus does not yet have a sufficiently well-equipped and armed Russian contingent that "could carry out this operation right now."
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