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A serious internal conflict has erupted within Iran’s top leadership amid attempts to reach an agreement with the United States, heightening signs of a rift within the ruling elite. The confrontation between the moderate camp and hardline conservatives is becoming increasingly open and is already accompanied by mutual accusations at the highest levels. Maariv writes about this. The escalation was triggered by harsh criticism from Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, who is participating in the negotiations with the American side. At a closed meeting, he accused opponents of the agreement of undermining national interests and warned of possible devastating consequences for the country. According to him, representatives of the radical wing, including Said Jalili and MP Amir-Hossein Sabeti, are acting as "extremist groups" and are effectively disrupting the negotiation process. Qalibaf also expressed concern that opponents of the deal are using state resources and media to pressure the negotiators. The situation was exacerbated by the recent incident around the Strait of Hormuz, which demonstrated the lack of unity within the leadership. Following Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s statements about his willingness to compromise, forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps opened fire on merchant vessels, effectively contradicting the official diplomatic line. Public insults directed at the Foreign Minister by representatives of the security forces, as well as calls for his resignation from conservative politicians, caused further resonance. Experts note that these developments indicate a growing governance crisis. Following the weakening of central authority and the redistribution of influence within the elite, various groups are increasingly acting independently, increasing instability within the country. A deepening power struggle inside Iran is complicating negotiations with the US, one analysis found. With no supreme leader in place after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death, the internal battle for power is spilling into conflicting signals over policy on the Strait of Hormuz. The Economist reported that the mixed messaging on the Strait of Hormuz is a sign of a power struggle unfolding without an undisputed leader. The British weekly made the case in an article titled "Which Iran Is America Negotiating With?" The strain was also visible at the first round of talks. Iran sent an unusually large delegation of 80 people to negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11 and 12, including 30 officials with decision-making authority. That contrasted with earlier negotiations with the US, when Tehran typically relied on small, elite teams. At the root of the turmoil is a vacuum at the top. Seven weeks after Khamenei’s death, Iran has yet to set even a funeral date. Mojtaba Khamenei, considered a potential successor, has also been the subject of persistent speculation about his condition. Formal authority now rests with the Supreme National Security Council, led by Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, but that arrangement is facing resistance centered on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC. Recent protests in which a woman without a hijab was seen leading chants, along with the decision to postpone local elections scheduled for May 1 by 60 days, were cited as signs of tightening military control. The rival factions remain far apart on major issues. Nationalists see Iran’s proxy forces as a bargaining chip in negotiations for sanctions relief, while Islamists regard them as the core of resistance. On the nuclear issue, nationalists view the program as a risk that could invite an external attack, while Islamists argue Iran should pursue a North Korea-style model of nuclear development. Even if Iran returns to the negotiating table, deep divisions within its delegation will make a deal difficult, the magazine said. Any agreement that is reached would also face a high risk of quickly unraveling because of the country’s internal conflict.
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