Marcin Zaborowski says the widening conflict in the Middle East is not good news for Ukraine, as global attention and resources are being diverted away from the war with Russia. He notes that Western allies are increasingly focused on another major conflict, meaning less ammunition and equipment may be available for Ukraine. At the same time, he points out one potential advantage for Kyiv: Iran, a key ally of Russia, is now fighting for its own survival and may no longer be able to support Moscow as effectively. Zaborowski also warns that rising oil prices could benefit Russia, giving it more money to finance its war effort. He explains that Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian refineries are intended to weaken Russia’s military capabilities, even if they cannot stop the war entirely. Finally, he argues that Iran’s strategy is to “wage disruption” and make the conflict as expensive as possible for its adversaries by destabilizing energy markets and global trade.
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