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Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian Baltic Sea ports have disrupted Moscow’s ability to fully benefit from surging global oil prices and have also highlighted weaknesses in Russia’s air defense network, according to a Financial Times report published on April 6. Russia’s economic losses have been significant as a result of attacks on Ust-Luga and Primorsk terminals in Leningrad region. Borys Dodonov, head of energy research at the Kyiv School of Economics, estimated that Russia lost roughly $970 million in revenue within a single week – from March 23 to March 29 -following five separate attacks on the Primorsk and Ust-Luga terminals. Analysts noted that strikes on these two major export hubs in the Baltic Sea could seriously undermine Kremlin profits, which had recently increased due to oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel in connection with broader geopolitical instability. Together, Primorsk and Ust-Luga handle more than 40% of Russia’s maritime oil exports. In Primorsk alone, around $200 million worth of oil was reportedly destroyed by fires triggered during the attacks, according to a Western security sources. Ust-Luga, which is responsible for about 8% of global oil shipping volumes, saw a dramatic drop in activity, with exports falling by approximately 70% after the late-March strikes, according to industry estimates. While some operations may resume within days, experts suggest the terminals will not return to full capacity quickly, as rebuilding damaged storage tanks and repairing processing infrastructure could take months. The Financial Times also reported assessments suggesting that Ukraine’s ability to strike these facilities indicates it may be advancing more quickly than Russia in long-range drone development, despite ongoing Russian efforts to damage Ukrainian production sites. A source linked to Russia’s defense establishment acknowledged this assessment in comments to the newspaper. Military analysts warned that if Ukraine is able to maintain regular long-range missile and drone attacks, Russian economic and strategic losses could increase further. Even Russian officials have admitted limitations in their defensive capabilities, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov acknowledging that protecting energy infrastructure completely from UAV strikes is not possible – remarks that reportedly drew criticism from pro-government commentators. Russia has attempted to counter the threat by building layered protection systems, including electronic warfare tools, physical defenses, and the deployment of reservist units around key energy installations. However, these measures have not fully neutralized the risk posed by Ukrainian drone operations. Some Russian companies have even been forced to fund and install their own protective infrastructure. One prominent Russian business figure told the Financial Times that his company had to construct protective towers and string netting across facilities at a personal cost of around 1.5 billion rubles, approximately $19.1 million, adding that no state support was provided. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Security Service confirmed that long-range drones struck infrastructure at the Ust-Luga oil terminal in late March, with satellite imagery showing large-scale fires at both Ust-Luga and Primorsk. Further drone activity in Leningrad Oblast occurred on March 31, marking the fifth attack on Ust-Luga within a ten-day period, according to Reuters. Following these repeated strikes, reports from Bloomberg indicated that Russia’s Baltic Sea oil exports fell to their lowest levels since the start of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Although shipments from Ust-Luga have since resumed at reduced levels, full recovery has yet to be achieved, with only limited export capacity restored as of early April.
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