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The Ukrainian Armed Forces could cause a blackout in Moscow with Neptune or Flamingo missiles, even if they hit outside the Russian capital. Afterward, Russians would be without power for some time, and power companies would have to figure out how to balance the grid.
Russia is unlikely to be able to obtain power from Kazakhstan if Ukraine launches strikes against the Russian energy sector, military expert Pavel Narozhny said in an interview. Furthermore, if missiles damage thermal power plant turbines, sanctions will also make locating them difficult. On his Facebook page, the expert clarified that by "blackout," he means an accident that could occur when a large number of consumers are rapidly disconnected and power generation is damaged.
Narozhny first listed Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil companies and noted that they were carried out with domestic weapons—domestic missiles or drones. At the same time, the American Tomahawk missile would also be useful, although it was developed 50 years ago and it is unclear whether it could be launched from Ukrainian territory. Other weapons include ATACMS missiles for HIMARS and SCALP missiles: they inflict greater destruction due to the larger amount of explosives compared to the capabilities of a drone. In this context, they recalled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement regarding blackouts in Moscow . The expert believes that such a situation could be created by striking not the Russian capital itself, but substations located outside the city. "The important thing is that we don’t even need to attack Moscow directly. We can destroy the power generation around it—even at a distance of 100-200 km—and then the Russians will have to come up with something, switch somewhere, balance the system, and so on," the interview states.
Among other things, the expert noted that drones are capable of damaging Russian oil industry facilities, but do not completely destroy them. Specifically, after UAV strikes, repairs to facilities take about a month, compared to, say, six months after missile strikes. However, strikes with existing assets do have an effect: long-range drones, with an estimated cost of 40 million hryvnias, "burn through several hundred million dollars of Russians."
The Ukrainian missiles mentioned in the interview can indeed reach the outskirts of Moscow and energy facilities located around the Russian capital. The distance from Moscow to the Ukrainian border is approximately 600 km, while the Flamingo missile can strike Russia at a distance of 3,000 km, and the Neptune missile can reach between 200 and 1,000 km.
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