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Western analysts are reporting a possible planned operation by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Crimea, following Ukraine’s successful strikes on the temporarily occupied peninsula. Ivan Tymochko, Chairman of the Council of Reserves of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, addressed the possibility of this on Channel 24 .
"Perhaps they’re analyzing this, perhaps they want to forecast the situation, to attract the reader’s attention. It’s difficult for me to assess this. If we strike Russian units in Crimea, we’re primarily aiming to destroy the enemy’s logistics, support, and reserve forces that support their offensive formations in southern Ukraine," he said.
Timochko added that a ground operation in Crimea is currently quite difficult to imagine, especially given the weather conditions that have arrived with the autumn-winter period.
"The rainy season begins, and later, frosts. Daylight hours become shorter. And in difficult weather conditions, drones, for example, lose their effectiveness significantly. And this is often a problem for aviation. I’m not even talking about ground forces, which will be forced to move during periods of swamps and soil softening. But such a hypothesis is plausible," Timochko noted. İn this case the peninsula will become one of the main battlegrounds for the ground forces.
Andriy Ryzhenko, retired Captain 1st Rank and former Deputy Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Navy, also believes that a strike by the Ukrainian Defense Forces on Crimea is entirely possible . He stated, in particular, that Ukraine could use American Tomahawk cruise missiles for this purpose. At the same time, according to Ryzhenko, an operation involving the airdrop of Ukrainian defenders into Crimea is currently unrealistic. "Resources are being accumulated for this purpose. And if the enemy loses this line of communication, it will have a very serious geopolitical impact, both in terms of image and operational impact, for the military. Because a truly significant amount of cargo is being transported across the Crimean Bridge," Ryzhenko said.
He noted that this could be accomplished, in particular, with Tomahawk missiles, the transfer of which the United States is currently negotiating. At the same time, he noted that the Russian air defense system on the temporarily occupied peninsula could act as a barrier to such a strike. "There are S-400 systems there, lots of them. And this is a system that can shoot down missiles if it’s operational. And to prevent the enemy’s system from doing this, we’re currently seeing strikes on radar stations and the disabling of the launchers themselves. And then, of course, it’s possible," the expert noted.
At the same time, he stated that the operation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces with a possible landing on the territory of temporarily occupied Crimea, which was previously reported by a Sky News analyst, is not yet realistic.
"While individual actions are entirely possible, they are being carried out. But the enemy hasn’t lost as much of its potential as it might seem," Ryzhenko added.
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