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When Russian dictator Vladimir Putin jailed Mikhail Khodorkovsky in 2003, it symbolized his grip on power and the end of independent business in Russia. Nearly twenty-two years later, Khodorkovsky has once again become a threat to the president, this time due to FSB accusations of plotting a "coup d’état." The authorities claim that the "Anti-War Committee," founded by Khodorkovsky, allegedly planned to seize power by force. The opposition leader himself calls these accusations fabricated, while experts believe the Kremlin is simply paranoid. The Telegraph writes about this.
" This speaks to the fear and vulnerability of the Russian government ," noted John Herbst, former US Ambassador to Ukraine. According to him, Putin is once again seeking internal enemies to justify weakening his regime. He has many reasons for concern. Russia’s economy, long sustained by military contracts, has begun to collapse. Banks are mired in the debt of defense enterprises, interest rates are hitting record highs, and industry is unable to service their loans. Economists estimate that about a quarter of all corporate loans in Russia are loans to companies associated with the military. These loans were issued without any real guarantee of repayment, and now many companies are on the brink of bankruptcy. Even the largest banks are buckling under the strain. Bloomberg reports that several are already preparing requests for Central Bank assistance. However, the head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, insists there is no crisis. Opposition politician Vladimir Milov warns: " Everything in Russia looks calm until suddenly an avalanche of non-payments begins ." Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones are launching new strikes against Russian oil refineries. Since the beginning of the year, 21 of the 38 largest refineries have been attacked, and gasoline prices have now risen by 40%. Fuel coupons have been introduced in occupied Crimea, and small gas stations in Siberia are closing. The situation is exacerbated by US actions. President Donald Trump, frustrated by the lack of progress in peace talks, imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s largest oil giants. Furthermore, Washington threatened to punish banks that help Moscow process oil export payments. Following this, China and India reduced their purchases of Russian oil, depriving the Kremlin of key revenue. " For the first time in three and a half years, Russia is truly feeling pain ," said Chatham House analyst Timothy Ash. He noted that Moscow is losing financial resources faster than it can replace them. Trump makes no secret of his intention to increase pressure. " He must end this war. Do you see the gas lines in Russia? Their entire economy is about to collapse ," the American leader said. Against this backdrop, the Kremlin is becoming increasingly nervous. Khodorkovsky stated that the FSB’s reaction to his activities is due to " anxiety surrounding the issue of the succession of power ." Putin has no obvious successor, and trust in the country’s governing institutions has long been undermined. Milov notes that " the rise in loan restructurings is a worrying sign: companies are unable to repay their debts ."
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