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The war unleashed by the Kremlin regime against Ukraine is having new consequences for Russia. The aggressor country is facing not only a declining economy but also a rise in crime due to the occupiers returning from the front. Taken together, this looks like a ticking time bomb, capable of instantly leading to a social explosion. A Levada Center poll has shown that the Kremlin’s attempts to turn participants in the war against Ukraine into the country’s "new elite" are failing. According to the study, almost half of Russians perceive those returning from the front as a source of danger and potential criminality. Anxiety and mistrust of such individuals are growing even among those who support the war. Thus, 41% of Russians believe that the war "crippled the souls" of those who fought in it. Another 19% believe that those who fought in it have become cruel and prone to violence, and 11% believe that they have lost empathy, becoming "indifferent and cynical." The most negative assessments were given by young and middle-aged people: in the 18-39 age group, the proportion of those who see the participants in the war against Ukraine as prone to violence reached 23-24%. Thirty-nine percent of respondents expect those returning from war to cause increased crime and conflict within the country. Sociologists note that even among those who support the war, concerns are high: 35% of those who support the invasion fear potential problems with returning soldiers.
Political scientist Abbas Gallyamov called the survey results catastrophic for the Kremlin. He emphasizes that almost half of respondents openly expressed opinions contrary to the Kremlin regime’s official position and the narratives disseminated daily by Russian propaganda. Previously, Reuters sources reported that Putin himself shared concerns about the Russian army’s return from the war in Ukraine. According to three sources close to the Russian administration, the Kremlin sees this as a risk of increased crime and destabilization. The Moscow Times cites data from Russian courts indicating that those who returned from the war in Ukraine have already committed more than 750 murders and serious crimes in Russia. Many of them suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder, others have a criminal record and have returned to their usual patterns of violence.
The Kremlin shares the public’s concerns: Vladimir Putin fears that the army’s return from the war in Ukraine threatens to increase crime and destabilize the political system he created, three sources close to the Presidential Administration previously told Reuters. According to one of them, Putin sees the risk of a situation resembling the 1990s, when veterans began to form gangs and organized crime groups after the end of the war in Afghanistan.
According to court records, soldiers returning from Ukraine have already killed and maimed more than 750 Russians. Putin’s concerns stem not only from the veterans’ psychological trauma and criminal records, but also from economic realities, Reuters sources told us: salaries at the front are many times higher than the incomes available to "heroes of the Soviet military" in civilian life. The end of the war threatens them with a sharp deterioration in their financial situation and a surge in discontent.
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