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The Russian oil terminal and refinery in Tuapse is on fire again after another devastating drone attack by Ukraine. Russian military bloggers are screaming about how bad frontline conditions are for Russian soldiers. Ukraine is expanding the use of UGVs and plans to contract 50,000 this year. Recall, Tuapse burns – a third wave of strikes has reignited earlier fires and started new ones. Now the flames are burning out of control and may consume the whole plant. This is a major strategic and psychological blow for Putin and his war economy. In this episode – Budanov’s doctrine and the end of the ‘no cards’ lie. Tuapse oil refinery and port burns for the third time in twelve days. Above the Russian port city of Tuapse — population thirty-five thousand, one of the most strategically important oil export hubs Russia possesses — the air is filled with the sound of more than a dozen consecutive explosions. Smoke from the fire at the Tuapse Oil Refinery is billowing over the sea. It hangs along the coast, reaching Gizel-Dere and Shepsi, villages a few kilometers from Tuapse. A train passes through them, heading to the city from Sochi. According to satellite images , smoke spread at least 140 kilometers within the first hours of the new Ukrainian strike. Krasnodar Krai Governor Veniamin Kondratyev announced that authorities had begun evacuating residents of houses on Koshkina and Pushkina Streets and in the side streets near the terminal "for safety reasons". A stocky man with a khaki backpack and a girl of about ten in a cap look out the compartment window at the approaching black sky. Residents of Tuapse seem oblivious to the black sky above. Some rush to work, others rush to buy coffee and a quick breakfast from the stalls of the opening market. The black puddles that appeared on the sidewalks after last week’s oil rain have already receded. The remaining soot and black stains are now clearly visible only on light-colored surfaces: signs and the white slab of the monument to the Glorious Soviet Sailors, which stands near the port. People wearing medical masks or respirators are rare in Tuapse. However, finding protective equipment in pharmacies is difficult. "There are no masks. We’re waiting for a delivery today," one pharmacy employee explains. "No, we haven’t run out today. In the next few days." I only manage to find a mask at the third pharmacy. Ukraine’s series of attacks on Russian oil facilities in Tuapse , including a new strike on the night of April 28, were so effective that they forced Vladimir Putin to publicly respond to the attacks—something he usually avoids. This is discussed in a new report from the Institute for the Study of War. Analysts point out that the Kremlin typically doesn’t react to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. However, the impact of the Ukrainian strikes on the Tuapse oil refinery was apparently " so significant" that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and his spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, personally responded on April 28. In other words, these strikes forced the Kremlin to acknowledge their consequences, ISW emphasizes. Krasnodar Krai authorities were forced to declare a state of emergency in the Tuapse Municipal District due to the aftermath of the attacks. They also acknowledged that the strike had caused an oil spill. Putin met with Alexander Kurenkov, the Russian Minister of Civil Defense, Emergencies, and Disaster Relief, and instructed him to travel to Tuapse to oversee the response to the attack. Peskov acknowledged the strike on Tuapse but stated that all details regarding the affected facilities were classified. Peskov also criticized Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, calling them further destabilizing global energy markets. The ISW notes that Ukraine is intensifying its campaign of attacks against Russian oil infrastructure precisely at a time when Russia is attempting to exploit the global energy crisis to increase revenues from energy exports to finance its war against Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War expects that the Ukrainian Defense Forces will likely continue to exploit the overstretched Russian air defenses and the significant areas of Russia’s deep rear that it must cover to launch more frequent and large-scale strikes against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets.
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