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In Russia, a de facto process of power transition has begun among the elites. A strange situation exists where there is supposedly no transition, yet everyone is living within its logic. Political scientist Vadym Denysenko stated this on Espreso TV.
"There are two processes that are, in principle, synchronized. On one hand, as long as there is no physical or political death of Putin, it is quite difficult to talk about a transition of power. But at the same time, despite the topic of a successor being taboo in the Russian Federation, and despite it being absolutely forbidden in Russia today, the process of power transition has de facto started among the elites.
This is because the war has initiated a whole series of processes leading to the impoverishment of the Russian elites, and also because the circle of untouchable people in the Russian Federation has sharply narrowed," he explained.
According to Denysenko, there is this strange situation where there is supposedly no transition, but everyone is living within the logic of this power transition.
"To make it clearer for us, it’s like how Ukraine has been living for the past year; we know there will be no elections, but everyone is living within the logic of an election. It’s exactly the same way—there is no transition, but the elites have started to live within the logic of a transition. This, in turn, of course, shows us how five or six people are emerging as leaders in this process. But then again, just like the appearance of Putin himself, the transition of Russian power will obviously still involve the emergence of new ‘dark horses’," the political scientist believes. Ukraine and its Western partners must proactively develop a joint strategic action plan for a scenario in the event of Putin’s death. Such a moment could be a turning point not only for Russia but for the global order. This view was expressed by expert Refat Chubarov.
“The death of dictator Putin will inevitably become a turning point not only for Russia itself but for the entire world. It is already evident today: various scenarios for the development of the Russia-Ukraine war after his departure will require Ukraine and the international community not spontaneous decisions, but readiness to act in accordance with a strategically developed and agreed plan by Ukraine and its partners”, Refat Chubarov said. According to Chubarov, Putin’s system of rule is based on fear, corruption, and personal loyalty. After the leader’s death, internecine fighting among security forces, oligarchs, and regional elites could begin, which may weaken the army and destabilize statehood. “When its peak falls, a struggle for power will begin within the pyramid itself. Competing groups – security forces, oligarchs, regional elites – will try to take control of resources and the symbolic heritage of the ‘great power’.
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