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Russia’s main attack is concentrated on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad sector, where Russian invaders are attempting to break through the defenses and reach the rear of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Kostiantynivka is particularly at risk: the city is under attack from three sides, and enemy attempts to engage in street fighting are already being recorded. This was stated by military expert Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of security projects at the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI," on the FREEDOM television channel.
The situation on the front, according to the expert, is truly grave. The Russians enjoy an overwhelming advantage in manpower. The enemy’s main forces are concentrated in the Donetsk region.
"The Russians’ main attack is concentrated on Donbas, and it must be viewed in its broad context: from Pokrovsk in the south and probably Liman, and perhaps even Kupyansk, as a single entity. Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. It’s very difficult to say that any controlled fighting is taking place there, but the stubborn resistance of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad is preventing the enemy from repeating its attempt to penetrate the rear of the entire Ukrainian force, as it did with the Dobropillia salient. There were further attempts recently, but they were unsuccessful," Lakiychuk noted.
Since the Russians are unable to attack from the flanks, they are attempting to advance from the front, which indicates the failure of their plan, the expert believes.
"The main point of focus is Kostiantynivka, which the Russians are trying to encircle from three sides at the tactical level. This is also a very complex situation. It’s only a matter of time before street fighting begins in the city. It may have already begun," the speaker noted.
The third area of the Seversky Salient is Limanskoye. According to Lakiychuk, the Russians are attempting to advance toward Slavyansk there, but their efforts are less successful. Defense forces are repelling all attempts by Russian troops to advance.
"Donbas is a key area of attack for the Russian occupation army. The Donbas issue is mentioned in the negotiations; the Russians talk about some kind of territorial issue, believing that the Ukrainians should withdraw from the Donetsk region themselves, and then everything will supposedly be resolved. But this is untrue, and the idea behind Russia’s demand is that they cannot force out the defenders of Donbas by force, so they are trying to find other means," the expert believes.
Another direction of the front, according to Lakiychuk, is no less dangerous, but not yet on the same scale as Donetsk: Zaporizhzhia.
" On the one hand, attempts are continuing to penetrate the rear and front of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Huliaipole direction, north of Huliaipole, and outflank the entire force. Fighting continues on the outskirts of the city. The enemy continues to push Ukrainian forces out of this very chokepoint, which is crucial for maintaining this enemy flank breakthrough. On the other hand, taking advantage of weather conditions, including frozen ground, Russian troops are attempting to break through the front closer to the former Kakhovka Reservoir. The swamp there has frozen over, allowing for a second enveloping maneuver," the guest said.
The Russians are not achieving the expected results and are suffering heavy losses, but the concept remains the same, Lakiychuk stated.
"If we, say, drop the territorial issue today and give up Donbas—I don’t want to discuss the ethical implications of this—then the next thing that will emerge, as is obvious from the nature of the fighting, is a new Kremlin demand that will affect southern Ukraine. It’s like stepping stones," the speaker noted.
According to Lakiychuk, negotiations are unlikely to have any impact on the course of military operations by Russian occupiers against Ukraine.
"First and foremost, the Russians are focused on trying to achieve maximum or at least some success on the battlefield, in order to force Ukraine to capitulate either through negotiations or military defeat," he concluded.
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