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Vladimir Putin’s reign in Russia is coming to an end. A major transition of power is imminent following the "non-triumphant war." This forecast was published by Russian ultra-patriot and Z-blogger Maxim Kalashnikov.
He expects a "period of chaos and instability" in Russia during this period. He believes the "elites" will install a weak puppet to power, which they will use to try to restore relations with the West and lift sanctions against Russia. "I expect the inevitable inter-clan struggle for the redistribution of spheres of influence, property, and financial flows," Kalashnikov wrote. During this time, the security forces will be weakened, disorganized, and demoralized by the results of the so-called "SVO." Against the backdrop of a devastated economy, a surge in crime, an escalation of interethnic conflicts, and a radicalization of society are expected in Russia. The veterans of the "SVO" will be especially angry, as they will return to a life of poverty and unsettledness. Kalashnikov does not rule out the collapse of the Russian Federation according to the “Soviet” scenario. "All of this creates the threat of a situation similar to the late 1980s and early 1990s. For at least a couple of years," the Z-patriot stated.
Recently, the seemingly unthinkable has happened in Russia: Z-patriots have exploded with sharp criticism of Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin. This isn’t a "thaw," but rather a manifestation of a "quiet rebellion" among the Kremlin’s elites. Igor Dimitriev, a former Odessa City Council member who betrayed Ukraine and defected to Russia, wrote about this in his blog. A telling example was the case of informant Ilya Remeslo, who dared to accuse Putin of treason. He was not arrested or liquidated, as might have been expected after such harsh words. Instead, Remeslo spent a couple of weeks in a psychiatric hospital, after which he was calmly released and continued his rhetoric about the Russian dictator. “There is indeed a quiet rebellion within the elite,” Dimitriev wrote. He did not rule out that a “castling” would soon occur in the Russian elite. “This does not guarantee a softening of domestic policy and peace with the West and Ukraine, but quite the opposite,” Dimitriev suggested. He expressed the opinion that a full-scale war against Ukraine was a big mistake for Putin.
Some elite groups and influential figures prefer to abide by the classical rules of the vertical: i.e., to simply wait for Putin to change their lot. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Kremlin Chief of Staff Anton Vaino, for example, keep their heads down and work quietly, without clearly demonstrating any particular career ambitions.
That model enables them to stay afloat for now, but weak clans are already starting to suffer amid the reduction in resources. In this context, horizontal tactics will be increasingly in demand, even just to survive in Putin’s system. Players who have increased their influence with the help of horizontals become stronger: they are no longer as easy to attack. In the event of any losses, horizontal partners whom that player previously helped could help them in exchange. And as players’ careers progress, they increase their chances of retaining control over their previous place of work.
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