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Russian air defense forces , repelling successive waves of Ukrainian long-range drones, are running low on ammunition. While oil refineries and other facilities in many regions of the Russian Federation remain virtually unprotected, air defense forces are concentrated on Moscow. As defense technology expert David Hambling writes in his article for Forbes, there are signs that Russia’s missile shortage is widespread and getting worse. The journalist noted that no other army in the world possesses such a large inventory of mobile anti-aircraft systems as the Russian one. NATO armies typically operate under the assumption of air superiority, and since Soviet times, the Russians have invested heavily in mobile missile systems. While the US has only a few light M-SHORAD and M1097 Avenger systems, the Russians have hundreds of heavy vehicles, including the tracked Tor-M and the eight-wheeled Pantsir-S. These systems are designed to counter a variety of air threats, including fighters, attack helicopters, and cruise missiles. Ukrainian Fire Point F-1 and An-196 Lyuty drones aren’t known for their speed or maneuverability, but Russian air defenses aren’t always capable of countering them. Furthermore, Hambling noted that these drones cost approximately $60,000 each, while the 9M330 missile launched by the Tor system costs just over $600,000. The journalist emphasized that Russia’s missile shortage is indicated by the fact that in 2025, empty launcher slots were observed on Russian anti-aircraft missile systems, instead of a full complement. It was also noted that some of the ammunition being replenished consisted not of modern missiles, but of ammunition from deep storage depots. The Russians often equipped their land-based anti-aircraft guns with munitions designed exclusively for naval use. For their use, special launchers were installed on land-based platforms. Another obvious sign of Russia’s missile shortage, according to the expert, is the appearance of strange air defense systems that use R-77 air-to-air missiles and are mounted on the chassis of a Ural truck. The journalist recalled that Russian "war correspondent" Maxim Kalashnikov had previously stated that the emergence of such air defense systems was due to a missile shortage. He said that there were often only one or two missiles for every six vehicles. In April, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky stated that Russia’s shortage of air defense missiles was due to drone strikes on production facilities. Some facilities, such as the Arzamas Instrument-Making Plant, which was hit in August 2025, produce critical components such as missile gyroscopes. Hambling noted that Russia certainly hasn’t run out of missiles. He suggested that many air defense units may have been redeployed to protect Moscow. The expert emphasized that dozens of Pantsir missiles were recently deployed on towers around Moscow to provide them with a clear field of fire. Hambling added that deploying air defense systems in cities is fraught with risk, as Russian missiles often miss their intended low-flying targets and instead hit residential buildings. Hambling believes that the Kremlin’s main question now is whether its air defense systems will be effective if Ukraine decides to strike Moscow in the coming days. He recalled that on May 4, a Ukrainian drone struck a building approximately 6 kilometers from the Kremlin.
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