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Analysts estimate that Russian troops have lost control of approximately 116 square kilometers of territory over the past month. Such a reduction in positions has not been recorded since August 2024, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces began an operation in the Kursk region. This is stated in a report by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War. Experts note that the pace of Russia’s offensive actions is gradually decelerating, a trend that has been evident since November 2025. According to their data, Ukrainian forces are actively conducting local counterattacks and delivering precision medium-range strikes, which is seriously complicating the enemy’s supply and logistics. As a result, Russian units are increasingly forced to go on the defensive in areas where they had previously planned offensive actions.
Seasonal climate change is cited as a separate factor slowing the offensive. According to meteorological data, the winter of 2025–2026 in eastern Ukraine will be approximately three degrees colder than the previous season and significantly wetter than the winter of 2024–2025. This complicates the movement of equipment and the conduct of large-scale operations. Critical assessments of the situation are also being voiced within the Russian information community. Military bloggers note problems with the effectiveness of air operations and doubt that the stated scale of air force deployment can be realized in practice.
According to their data, Su-34 crews are capable of using up to six glide bombs per sortie, and the potential volume of airstrikes could theoretically increase from 10,000 to 15,000-16,000 munitions per month. However, the same sources acknowledge that the shortage of serviceable aircraft and a shortage of technical personnel hinders the achievement of such targets.
It is specifically emphasized that the capabilities of Russian aviation may be limited by its resource base, and not just by tactical plans. Russian units are reportedly continuing to attempt infantry advances in the frontline area of Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region, where the Ukrainian side has stepped up counter-sabotage measures. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously stated that Russia will not have made any significant advances on the front line by 2026, but the enemy continues to prepare new offensive actions and intensifies information pressure.
Recall, the war against Ukraine has been not only a military but also a major geopolitical defeat for Russia. The Kremlin is rapidly losing influence beyond its own borders, and its former image as a "guarantor of security" for its allies is effectively destroyed. The Kremlin is rapidly losing influence beyond its own borders, and its former image as a "guarantor of security" for its allies has been effectively destroyed. This conclusion was made by political scientist Sergei Taran on the Apostrophe TV channel.
According to the expert, the key problem is that Moscow is no longer capable of supporting even nominally loyal regimes. All available resources—military, economic, and political—are focused on Ukraine, causing Russia to lose ground in several strategically important regions. As Taran noted, this isn’t just a matter of image loss. The real instruments of influence that Russia possessed before the outbreak of full-scale war have essentially disappeared. Therefore, despite some local successes on the front, the Kremlin has already lost strategically.
“The Russian influence that existed even before the war no longer exists in the world ,” he emphasized.
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