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A senior Ukrainian military official has revealed that Russia is likely preparing a large-scale offensive in the spring, adding that Ukrainian forces plan to counter it with flexible counterattacks and intensified use of drones. Speaking to local media, Major General Oleksandr Komarenko, who heads the Main Operational Directorate of Ukraine’s General Staff, explained that Ukrainian military planners have a clear picture of Russian troop deployments, their strength, and their possible intentions. Based on this information, Ukraine’s strategy focuses on detecting vulnerabilities in Russian formations and exploiting them. Komarenko emphasized that Ukrainian intelligence continuously monitors Russian troop movements. According to him, analysts track where Russian forces are concentrated, where they are weaker, and where they are regrouping. By examining these patterns, Ukrainian military officials try to determine the purpose behind the Russian army’s maneuvers and predict what actions may follow. This constant surveillance allows them to identify sectors where Ukrainian troops could gain an advantage, for example, areas where Russian forces are overstretched, less numerous, or positioned in terrain that favors offensive operations. The Main Operational Directorate is responsible for planning military operations and coordinating offensive actions along the front line. Because of the highly sensitive nature of its work, officials from this unit rarely speak publicly. Komarenko noted that several operations designed by his directorate in 2025 resulted in successful Ukrainian counteroffensives. These actions prevented Russian forces from capturing the northern city of Kupiansk, stopped advances in the Bakhmut–Dobropillya area in the east, and secured a strategically important chain of villages and elevated terrain in the Hulyaipole–Zaporizhzhia region. Komarenko added that offensive operations remain possible even under modern battlefield conditions dominated by widespread drone surveillance, which makes traditional armored vehicles far more vulnerable. Success, he said, requires strict operational secrecy and a realistic assessment of both the enemy and the battlefield. He summarized this philosophy with a simple rule: speak less and act more. According to Komarenko, the battlefield is now extremely transparent, with nearly everything visible within roughly 20–25 kilometers between opposing forces. This zone can easily be targeted by drones and artillery and has effectively become a “kill zone.” As a result, Ukrainian forces often wait for unfavorable flying conditions, such as fog, rain, snow, or strong winds, that limit drone operations. Such weather provides rare opportunities to maneuver without being immediately detected. Komarenko believes Russia plans to rely heavily on infantry infiltration tactics during its anticipated spring offensive, even at the cost of extremely high casualties. Moscow is expected to focus its efforts primarily on the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia regions. Nevertheless, Ukrainian reinforcements deployed to those areas have already complicated Russian planning by launching localized counterattacks that disrupt Russian preparations. Komarenko declined to provide specific tactical details. However, independent military analysts and most Ukrainian media outlets report that Ukraine’s counteroffensive efforts have recently focused around the southern city of Hulyaipole. There, a task force composed largely of experienced infantry units trained for urban combat has been operating. During February, these forces recaptured more than a dozen villages that Russian units had seized earlier in 2026.
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