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An analysis of the situation on the front in recent weeks and months suggests that Ukraine has succeeded in halting the Russian army and stabilizing the situation on the front lines. Russia’s spring offensive has slowed significantly, and last month Moscow suffered a net loss of territory. Ukrainian Armed Forces officer Kirill Bondarenko , who has been on the Ukrainian front line for more than four years, told CNN that the condition of Russian troops on the front lines is noticeably changing.
"We see and feel the changing mood among Russian soldiers on the front lines. They are exhausted. We have managed to turn the tide," Bondarenko said. A high-ranking SBU official with the call sign " Banker" told CNN that Russia continues to launch continuous attacks in the Zaporizhzhia region, but Ukraine has managed to partially regain control of territories seized by the Russians several months ago. According to him, the area is being held through the coordination of infantry, drones and other units of the Defence Forces. CNN notes that this isn’t a major breakthrough by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Russia still controls almost 20% of Ukrainian territory, and the areas liberated by Ukraine remain small. But the very fact of the Russian army’s sharp slowdown and net territorial loss undermines the Kremlin’s main thesis: the supposedly inevitable advance of the Russian army. The front line is now so saturated with drones that rapid advances have become nearly impossible for both sides. Analysts estimate that Russian units are increasingly attempting to infiltrate in small groups, temporarily entering gray zones, and creating the appearance of an offensive. They are not always able to maintain such positions. Christina Harward, deputy head of the Russia group at ISW, told CNN that Putin’s negotiating tactics are based on trying to convince the West that further support for Ukraine is pointless. "The whole point of Putin’s negotiating tactic is to use this cognitive warfare to convince the West that there’s no point in supporting Ukraine and that they should simply push Ukraine to give in to all of Russia’s demands now. The current situation really undermines that whole narrative," Harvard said.
Former Odessa MP Igor Dimitriev, who defected to Russia, spoke of the inevitability of Russia’s defeat. Dimitriev advised Russians to accept that the war will not end well for them. "I’ll tell you something that will be hard for you to accept: the war can only end with Russia’s defeat… I don’t see any way in which Russia can emerge from this situation without major losses: without losses greater than those at the moment," the collaborator wrote. He noted the effectiveness of Ukraine’s tactics to deprive Russia of resources. They are already yielding results. "The slow retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the exhaustion of the Russian Armed Forces, sanctions, attacks on infrastructure and exports—all of this has been building up for four years, and only now has the Russian economy run out of resources and begun to tilt, which has immediately affected sentiment within the country and required extra measures to maintain control, which, in turn, is also affecting sentiment," Dmitriev wrote. He expressed confidence that US President Donald Trump will not force Ukraine to sign a capitulation agreement that would involve surrendering Donbas to Russia. Russia, he said, essentially has no other options left. "How can Russia reverse the course of the campaign? Declare mobilization? That would lead to a whole host of problems within the country and is unlikely to provide an advantage. Will Russia launch more missile strikes? Yes, there will be more civilian casualties. But how will this affect the balance of power? Nothing… Everything is moving toward the gradual exhaustion of the Russian economy and a domestic political crisis. What else is being proposed? A nuclear strike? Then, most likely, Russia will go down this path even faster, since it will become a pariah even for its own partners. And the outcome will be far more dire than simply economic and political demands," wrote the traitor to Ukraine.
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