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Ukrainian military expert Pavel Narozhny stated that an attack from Belarusian territory is theoretically possible, but in practice it would be extremely difficult.
"For the Russians to launch an offensive from this side, they need a large strike force, and it will take time to assemble. If they’re preparing, we’ll notice," he commented to Channel 24. The expert noted that Ukraine is tracking such movements not only with its own forces but also with the help of its allies via satellites and intercepts. According to him, an offensive would require more than 50,000 troops, while up to 160,000 Russian troops are already concentrated in the Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad area alone.
The northern sector, Narozhny noted, is extremely difficult to attack: forests, rivers, swamps, and virtually no roads. "The only roads are literally two, with bridges that can be quickly destroyed. Fortifications have been built continuously since the beginning of the invasion," he added.
The expert is confident that even with a concentration of forces on the Belarusian border, Russian advances will be extremely limited. "Ukraine’s defenses are much stronger now than they were in 2022: more troops, fortifications, and minefields," Narozhny said. He noted that a long section of the border with Belarus runs along the Dnieper. "They’re unlikely to try to cross the river. The situation is reminiscent of the Kherson region – they’re stuck and unable to advance. In forested areas, advancement is a little easier, but still difficult," the expert explained.
Narozhny suggested that the enemy might only be able to penetrate small areas, but past experience in the Sumy region shows that such attempts are largely ineffective. "Even if an offensive were to take place, the Russians are unlikely to be able to penetrate deeply into the country," he concluded. Military experts believe that the Belarusian army is currently unprepared for large-scale offensive operations and has limited combat effectiveness. However, according to intelligence data, the founder of the KRAKEN unit, Konstantin Nemichev, admits that Russia may be developing a plan of action from the territory of Belarus, using its forces in combination with Belarusian units. He points to the military rhetoric coming from official Minsk: in early April, Alexander Lukashenko declared the absence of "peacetime," and later signed a decree calling up reserve officers. An additional factor, according to Nemichev, is the increased activity of Belarusian troops in border areas.
In his opinion, there is no talk of preparing a major offensive, but Russia may seek to use Belarus to put pressure on Ukraine.
"There is reason to believe that Russia is once again trying to drag Belarus into war. This isn’t a full-scale offensive, but rather border provocations, creating tension in northern Ukraine, and an attempt to draw some Ukrainian Armed Forces forces away from key areas in the east and south," he writes. Nemichev also considers scenarios of an attack on large Ukrainian cities from the northern direction unlikely, calling them “still unrealistic.”
"The Ukrainian side has conveyed a clear message to the Belarusian leadership that any provocations are unacceptable. At the same time, it should be understood that Ukraine has sufficient capabilities to quickly respond if necessary," he emphasized. Pavel Latushko noted that Ukraine has already built a fairly effective defense system along the border with Belarus. He added that even assuming Lukashenko’s independence and the ability to issue military orders, he would not resort to an offensive against Ukraine. Such a move, he believes, would be extremely dangerous for him and could jeopardize his power.
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