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In recent years, Iran has found itself at the center of a covert but intense struggle for control of its missile arsenal. According to the Alma Institute, last month, US special forces intercepted a cargo ship in the Indian Ocean en route from China to Iran. Maariv writes about this . On board were military components, including industrial planetary mixers needed to produce solid rocket fuel. These devices are considered critical to the development of modern ballistic missiles capable of rapid launch with minimal probability of early detection.
Planetary mixers are a strategic resource for Iran. Unlike liquid-fueled missiles, solid-fuel systems allow for rapid launches, making them a priority technology for models with a range of 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers. The loss of such components directly reduces the speed of production and arsenal replenishment.
Analysts note that Iran has already suffered significant losses in its missile capabilities: Israel estimates that out of approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles from before the conflict, only 1,500–1,700 remain. At the same time, Israel has recorded a reduction in the number of launches and an improvement in the effectiveness of intercepting launchers, significantly limiting Iran’s capabilities.
Since 2019, Israel and the United States have been conducting systematic operations to destroy key elements of Iran’s missile infrastructure. Planetary mixers have already been destroyed in Iran, Syria, and Lebanon, and intercepted during shipping. These actions have forced Iran to increase its dependence on China, which supplies not only oil but also technological components for the missile industry. According to observers, approximately 2,000 tons of sodium perchlorate, a key material for solid fuel, have been delivered from China to the port of Bandar Abbas in recent months. Despite the active restoration of damaged factories in Parchin, Khojar, and Shahrod, Iran’s real problem is its limited supply of planetary mixers. Until the country can establish production or secure smuggling of them, the rate of expansion of its arsenal will remain limited.
At the political level, Tehran continues to position its missile program as defensive, but experts note that statements about its “peaceful nature” serve more as a cover for temporary vulnerability.
In turn, the ability of the US and Israel to control equipment supplies from China directly affects the pace of Iran’s rearmament: every missing supply could mean hundreds of new missiles potentially aimed at Israel. In this context, the protests in Iran fully meet the wishes of the US and Israel. Protests in Iran have been going on for 12 days now, with demonstrators taking over two cities and police siding with the protesters. Unrest erupted in late December amid an economic crisis: nearly 50% inflation, soaring prices, and a devalued national currency. It began with a business strike, but students soon joined in. Localized protests quickly escalated into widespread protests, calling for the overthrow of the ruling system and personally of Iran’s Supreme Leader, 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei . Iranian authorities are using harsh methods to suppress mass unrest. Activists report that security forces are using tear gas and water cannons, and in some cases, firearms .
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