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There are serious differences in Iran regarding diplomacy with the United States, which could result in a new round of escalation with the United States.
According to informed sources, internal struggles between various political groups in Iran, in particular the growing influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC, are complicating mediation efforts in dialogue between Tehran and Washington. The New York Post reports this. As the publication notes, despite the participation of political figures in the negotiations, including the president and foreign minister, the key decision to accept or reject any agreement ultimately rests with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
According to one source, the military conflict has strengthened the IRGC’s influence and given more radical circles additional incentives to prolong the standoff. Mediators also express concerns that internal discord within Iran could complicate the achievement of a more comprehensive agreement with the United States. The split helps explain why Iran has repeatedly tested US patience — launching attacks that provoke American retaliation without fully shattering the fragile cease-fire. At the same time, the American side warned that further escalation of the situation and Iran’s attempts to strengthen control over the Strait of Hormuz are unacceptable.
President Trump himself has shied away from defining what level of attack, exactly, would warrant a return to full-scale war, cryptically telling a reporter this week that “you’ll find out” when he determines a strike reaches the level of breaking the cease-fire.
Those tests came to a head on Friday, when the US launched airstrikes targeting three empty Iranian-linked tankers that tried to barrel through the US blockade of Iranian ports, according to US Central Command.
A US Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet disabled two tankers attempting to break past the American blockade on Tehran’s ports “after firing precision munitions into their smokestacks,” CENTCOM said in a post to X.
The ships — the Iranian-flagged M/T Sea Star III and M/T Sevda — were attempting to breach the blockade to reach an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman.
The strikes stopped the ships from reaching port, as video showed thick black smoke rising from the vessels after the strikes.
A third ship was also stopped when an F/A-18 Super Hornet “disabled the unladen oil tanker’s rudder by firing several rounds from a 20mm cannon gun,” the combatant command said. The US has roughly 15,000 troops enforcing the blockade, which took effect April 13, and CENTCOM said Friday that American forces are currently preventing more than 70 tankers from entering or leaving Iranian ports.
“These commercial ships have the capacity to transport over 166 million barrels of Iranian oil worth an estimated $13 billion-plus.”
Analysts have warned that mounting tensions over the blockade could accidentally trigger a return to full-scale war, but the US appears determined to avoid that outcome.
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