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Four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, the war in Ukraine has degenerated into a grueling conflict characterized by massive losses and minor territorial gains. Russia still controls approximately one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, and Ukraine recently launched a counteroffensive on one section of the front.
Diplomacy has intensified alongside the fighting. But as the war enters its fifth year, former officials and analysts say the next phase could unfold in three possible ways, Fox News reports. The most likely trajectory in the near future is a continuation of the current state. The war remains a conflict of attrition, in which neither side delivers a decisive blow, and negotiations yield little progress. Retired US Air Force General Philip Breedlove, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, stated that Moscow is not winning, despite holding territory: "There is no winner right now." "Russia, supposedly a global superpower with one of the world’s three best armies and four best air forces, has captured about 20% of Ukraine in 12 years. And they’ve lost, by some estimates, over 1.2 million people in this conflict. It’s a conflict Ukraine is working hard to overcome. It’s also a conflict Russia is not—I repeat, not—winning," he noted. Recent battlefield events suggest another possibility. Breedlove pointed to Ukraine’s rapid advances following the failure of Russian command and control systems. "In the last three or four days, due to the loss of the Starlink command and control system, Ukraine launched an offensive, and in three days, they’ve recaptured months of Russian advances. It was a three-pronged push, hundreds of square kilometers were recaptured, and Russia is now retreating in several places," he stated. Vandenberg Coalition Executive Director Carrie Filipetti said such advances could change the leverage at the negotiating table.
"Ukraine’s recent offensives to recapture its territory are yet another sign that Putin’s military machine continues to atrophy. Russia’s latest territorial losses demonstrate that Putin and his army are far from invincible and are beginning to face real setbacks in terms of capabilities and resources," the expert emphasized.
She added that momentum matters: "Not only is this Ukraine’s most significant advance in the past two years, its importance can be felt even more concretely at the diplomatic table. Finding a lasting and just peace through negotiations often depends on momentum—and right now, it’s on the Ukrainians’ side."
If these gains are sustained, they could change Moscow’s calculations and give Kyiv a stronger negotiating position, provided it receives strong U.S. support, Breedlove argues: "The first and most important thing Ukraine needs is a declarative statement from the West, and specifically the U.S., that we will not allow Russia to win in Ukraine, and we will give Ukraine what it needs to stop Russia, and that Putin hears that clearly. And when the Russian people hear that clearly, that will be a game-changer. I think that’s when Mr. Putin will have to make difficult decisions."
A third option worries some Western strategists: inconsistent support could prolong the conflict or tilt it in Russia’s favor. Heather Nauert, who served as the US State Department’s spokesperson from 2017 to 2019, characterized the war as more than a territorial dispute.
"As Putin’s war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, we remember that this conflict was never just about territory – it was about identity, faith, and the future of a free nation. Russia has destroyed more than 600 churches, persecuted millions of Ukrainian Christians during its occupation, and kidnapped more than 19,000 children in an attempt to break Ukraine’s spirit. President Trump’s commitment to lasting peace must be backed by strength and accountability – the kind that protects innocent lives, defends religious freedom, and brings stolen children home," Nauert said.
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