Vladimir Putin’s fixation on Ukraine’s Donbas stretches back over a decade. After Russia’s failed 2014 campaign and the 2022 full-scale invasion, the Donbas remains at the center of Moscow’s strategy. Russia now occupies about 88% of the region, with 99% of Luhansk and roughly three-quarters of Donetsk under its control as of August 2024. The Donbas’ industrial and mineral wealth—worth an estimated $1.5 to $1.8 trillion—has made it a strategic and economic target.
Ukraine’s fortress belt across Donetsk and Luhansk continues to hold despite heavy Russian assaults, costing Russia over 1.13 million casualties, according to Kyiv. With Donald Trump’s October 19 remarks suggesting a potential “cut-up” peace deal and a canceled summit between Trump and Putin on October 21, the region remains a flashpoint that defines the future of the war. President Zelenskyy insists Ukraine will never cede the Donbas, warning it would open the path for new Russian offensives.
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