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During the autumn-winter campaign, Russian occupiers will try first of all to resolve the issue of advancing to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. This opinion was expressed by the director of the information and consulting company Defense Express Sergey Zgurets.
"The Pokrovsk direction remains the most difficult… The goals that the enemy set for the summer campaign, which began there at the end of May, they have not actually been achieved. Because the course to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, which was the most important for the enemy and remains the most important, is in fact being achieved extremely slowly. In 2024 and 2025, Russia was able to capture less than 1% of our territory," he said on air at Espresso .
According to him, a certain regrouping is currently taking place.
"We expect the beginning of the autumn-winter campaign, where the enemy will also try to first of all resolve the issue of advancing towards the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, where the capture of Pokrovsk is extremely necessary for the enemy," the analyst said.
Zgurets noted that without capturing Pokrovsk, the Russians will not be able to move further to Dobropolye and in the direction of Kramatorsk.
"Right now, we can actually split into two components, as they assess the situation around Pokrovsk. These are military actions somewhat higher up in the Dobropolye zone. The remnants of Russian troops there are in a certain encirclement, but there is an insignificant number of Russian military personnel, and now these military personnel are being supplied by drones. The Russians are trying to provide assistance to these 50 or 100 military personnel who have found themselves in this trap," the expert said.
According to him, counterattacks are being carried out from the Ukrainian side to cut off the Russian group at the very heart of this penetration. He said:
"At this time, the enemy is carrying out attacks, including on Pokrovsk from the south and from the west, where, in fact, they are trying to push through our defense and influence the logistics around Pokrovsk. So, in any case, Pokrovsk will continue to remain the hottest spot and, in my opinion, it will be the main target of the Russian campaign. And here is the end of the summer and the beginning of the autumn-winter one."
Zgurets also commented on the situation in the Zaporizhia direction. In his opinion, we need to talk about the zone where the administrative borders of three regions coincide: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia and Donetsk.
"This is precisely the line that runs along the Volchya River. And it is there that the enemy is really trying to squeeze into the Dnipropetrovsk region. In certain areas, the enemy has succeeded. And when we talk now about such a specific intrigue or the dynamics of current actions, then there are actually two settlements there. Maliyevka belongs to the Donetsk region, and Temirovka belongs to the Zaporizhia region," the analyst says.
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