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Ukrainian defenders discovered a critical vulnerability in the Russian air defense system and began systematically launching difficult-to-counterattack attacks against it, according to a report by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War or ISW.
"Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign continues to exploit overburdened Russian air defense systems to damage oil infrastructure and military installations in Russia and occupied Crimea," the document states.
According to available data, in the last two weeks alone, Ukraine has attacked at least 10 Russian oil and gas facilities. One of the most recent high-profile targets was a refinery in Yaroslavl. As the Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 26, defense forces successfully struck a local oil refinery, causing a massive fire. This refinery is strategic, as it "has a refining capacity of approximately 15 million tons of oil per year and produces gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel."
In parallel with the attacks on the economy, the Ukrainian Armed Forces "disabled" important military facilities in occupied Crimea. According to the SBU, the Belbek airbase and airfield were hit.
According to experts, the enemy’s losses are significant, as the following were damaged: large landing ships of the Yamal-Ropucha 775 and Filchenkov-Tapir 1171 projects; reconnaissance ship "Ivan Khurs" Yuri Ivanov; air defense radiotechnical headquarters and MR-10M1 Mys-M1 radar; MiG-31 interceptor.
The enemy side also confirms the scale of the attacks. Mikhail Razvozhayev, the occupation governor of Sevastopol, admitted that "Ukrainian forces conducted one of the largest strike campaigns against Sevastopol, launching at least 71 drones."
In particular, near Selydove in the Donetsk region, Ukrainian troops struck an enemy ammunition depot and a command and observation post. In temporarily occupied Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia region, a Tornado-S multiple launch rocket system came under attack.
According to ISW, the success of these operations is due to a combination of several factors: the vast territory of the Russian rear, which is impossible to fully cover, and the increased production of Ukrainian drones. For example, on April 25, an incoming drone was recorded in Chelyabinsk, more than 1,800 kilometers from the international border.
Russian air defense does have exploitable weaknesses. For one, Russia struggles to produce critical tech and materials in its own territory, relying on foreign supply chains, which are vulnerable to disruptions and sanctions. As an example, sanctions can go after middleman companies like Electrotrade, which sold $1.1 million worth of American-made electronics to Russia since the start of 2024. Russian companies are exposed to cyber attacks, as well as kinetic ones — when Ukrainians manage to target manufacturing pressure points that can bottleneck production. “Russian air defences have imposed significant constraints on Ukraine’s military, shielded the Russian military and industry from the bulk of attempts to strike them in depth and improved substantially over the course of the war,” RUSI wrote. “Russia has also avoided using some parts of its air defence systems that are most concerning for NATO.” “At the same time, Russian air defences can be penetrated and destroyed. They are not insurmountable but are a major obstacle to efficiently striking Russian forces and territory.”
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