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The Ukrainian Defense Forces, through their actions on the front, managed to significantly slow down preparations for a large-scale offensive by Russian troops in the Donetsk region. Military expert, veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and former company commander of the Aidar battalion, Yevgeny Dyky, stated this on Radio NV. According to him, by seizing the initiative and conducting tactical counterattacks in the southern direction, the Ukrainian military effectively disrupted the start of the Russian army’s spring offensive campaign. The expert believes the enemy’s offensive was delayed by at least two months, and possibly longer. However, he adds, this doesn’t mean Russia has abandoned these plans; rather, the spring offensive is being pushed back to the summer and fall. Ukraine itself carries out counterattacks in the area, also. Dyky noted that Russian forces are trying to adapt to Ukrainian actions, deterring attacks while simultaneously bringing up reserves to restore their ability to advance. However, he added, the occupiers’ offensive potential is noticeably stalling. At the same time, he emphasized that a difficult period remains ahead. According to the expert, the current situation on the front line looks better than in 2024 and 2025. He noted that although current conditions are far from ideal and incomparable to expectations for 2023, Russian troops are currently effectively stuck. They continue to suffer significant losses, but without the same level of advancement. According to Diky, even if the Russians manage to capture individual kilometers, they lose ground in other areas during the same period. As a result, the front line essentially doesn’t move, but merely fluctuates. The expert believes that this is precisely why the Russian command is striving to turn the tide and has set itself the ambitious goal of attempting to capture the remaining part of the Donetsk region, including the large agglomeration of Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk, Druzhkovka, and Slavyansk, over the summer.
In his opinion, after bringing up reserves, Russia will try to launch a powerful offensive in the region with a delay of several months. Dykyi is convinced that Ukraine must withstand and repel this attack. Moreover, he admits that this could be Russia’s last major offensive. He claims that despite the size of the Russian army, its combat readiness has seriously deteriorated and is approaching critical limits. He suggested that this summer offensive could ultimately exhaust this resource. The expert also noted that the fighting for the four key cities of Donbas could be extremely difficult, but it is there, in his opinion, that the Russian army’s ability to conduct a large-scale advance may be limited. It’s worth noting that since the beginning of the year, the pace of Russian troop advances has slowed significantly, while Ukrainian forces continue to seize the initiative in various directions. Attacks by the Defense Forces on Russian logistics have reportedly had a significant impact, forcing the occupiers to adjust their plans for the spring-summer campaign. Welt also previously reported that Russia’s spring offensive has effectively fizzled out amid the rapid development of Ukrainian drone technology. According to the publication, this makes a turning point in the war possible as early as this year.
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