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Head of the Presidential Office of Ukraine Kirill Budanov said that drone strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure have not only an economic effect. He stressed the importance of the reputational consequences for the aggressor country. Russia’s ability to fulfill its obligations to partners is under threat. In particular, he emphasized: “Everyone has heard the official data from the president, I confirm them. But unfulfilled contracts are much more interesting.” Budanov noted that the main effect of the attacks is not financial losses or reduced production. He emphasized the image of the state as a supplier capable of fulfilling agreements. And here, according to him, the situation for Russia looks worse. “Russia is suffering an image blow. This is the most important thing. The oil price is still somehow balanced, the war will end – it will stabilize anyway. But the image blow will work for a very long time,” he explained. In fact, we are talking about trust, which is not lost immediately, but then it is difficult to regain. Sometimes it looks less tangible than the dollar figures. But it is these things, the official noted, that shape partners’ decisions for years to come. Budanov called the most important result of the strikes the disruption of contracts for the supply of raw materials. This means a loss of trust on the part of the buyer countries and creates risks for future deals. Partners may begin to look for alternative sources of supply to avoid such disruptions.
Furthermore, reputational losses do not disappear with the end of hostilities. They accumulate and affect long-term cooperation. And this is perhaps even more important than short-term financial indicators. Budanov has revealed that Ukraine has developments in the field of artificial intelligence integration into drone operations and that this will very soon become a “surprise” for the Russians. “In military terms, we are at a stage where the quantitative build-up of drones no longer resolves the issue fundamentally. Both we and the enemy have reached a certain maximum in the use of available control technologies. The next stage is full integration of artificial intelligence. We need a transition to autonomous systems capable of independently identifying targets and manoeuvring.
Ukraine already has such developments, and I am convinced that very soon they will become a surprise for the enemy.” Budanov added that for success in negotiations, Ukraine must be strong on the battlefield and united at home. He stressed that Ukraine’s red lines remain unchanged: “We do not recognise any territorial losses and are not going to trade our own land.” Recall, drone strikes hit both a major Russian petrochemical plant in the Samara region and a key oil pumping station in the Nizhny Novgorod region, triggering fires and raising fresh concerns over the vulnerability of Russia’s energy infrastructure, according to OSINT-community Exilenova+. Unmanned aerial vehicles struck the Novokuybyshevsk Petrochemical Company, a large industrial facility in the city of Novokuybyshevsk. The facility, part of the Rosneft structure, is one of the largest petrochemical producers in Russia and Eastern Europe. It processes over one million tons of raw materials annually and manufactures a wide range of products, including liquefied gases, benzene, phenol, acetone, olefins, and fuel additives. It is also the country’s only producer of synthetic ethanol and para-tert-butylphenol, making it a uniquely important asset within Russia’s industrial base. In a separate strike the same morning, drones also hit the Gorky oil pumping station in the Nizhny Novgorod region, according to Exilenova+ and satellite data from NASA FIRMS. The facility is located near the settlement of Meshikha, close to the city of Kstovo.
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