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Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton commented on media reports about a European intelligence report that assessed former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as a "potential destabilizing factor" for Vladimir Putin’s regime. On the YouTube channel War & Politics 24, Bolton expressed doubt that Shoigu is the figure who could be plotting against Putin, and stated that the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, is more suited for this role.
"Does Shoigu have ambitions to become the head of the Russian government? He probably does. But does he have the political capacity to build a coalition among representatives of the security forces? I don’t know; I wouldn’t call him the most likely candidate," Bolton said. According to the former US presidential adviser, potential candidates for the role of conspirators could be someone from the military or intelligence agencies. "If there was someone, I’d say it would be Gerasimov, essentially the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Someone directly from the military or the intelligence community, the FSB or GRU. Something like that, not someone from the civilian sphere," the source said. At the same time, Bolton noted that the Kremlin’s policy is very opaque to outside observers. The former adviser believes that dissatisfaction with Putin among the Russian military elite is growing as the Russian army is exhausted by the war and morale is falling. "How could it be otherwise, given Ukraine’s resistance since early February 2022?" he added.
Media previously reported, European intelligence believes that domestic political processes in Russia could lead to a coup d’état. The reports mention Shoigu, who is noted to retain significant influence in military circles, potentially creating the basis for internal conflict.
EU intelligence has documented certain events within Russia involving senior military officials, including the country’s former defense minister, Sergei Shoigu. According to European sources, Shoigu still retains significant influence in military circles, which could theoretically create conditions for domestic political conflict. However, no direct confirmation has been provided of any plans to overthrow Vladimir Putin. The European intelligence report, however, also notes increased security measures around the Russian president, including a more robust security system, additional checks on Putin’s entourage, and even restrictions on the use of communications equipment for members of his inner circle. Separate mention is made of the Russian dictator’s reduction in public trips and a shift to a more private working environment. Putin allegedly appears less and less frequently at official residences, preferring more private and secure locations.
Previously, Western analysts wrote that Putin is currently busy searching for internal enemies to justify weakening his regime. When Russian dictator Vladimir Putin jailed Mikhail Khodorkovsky in 2003, it symbolized his grip on power and the end of independent business in Russia. Nearly twenty-two years later, Khodorkovsky has once again become a threat to the president, this time due to FSB accusations of plotting a "coup d’état." The authorities claim that the "Anti-War Committee," founded by Khodorkovsky, allegedly planned to seize power by force. The opposition leader himself calls these accusations fabricated, while experts believe the Kremlin is simply paranoid. The Telegraph writes about this . " This speaks to the fear and vulnerability of the Russian government ," noted John Herbst, former US Ambassador to Ukraine. According to him, Putin is once again seeking internal enemies to justify weakening his regime. He has many reasons for concern. Russia’s economy, long sustained by military contracts, has begun to collapse. Banks are mired in the debt of defense enterprises, interest rates are hitting record highs, and industry is unable to service their loans. Economists estimate that about a quarter of all corporate loans in Russia are loans to companies associated with the military. These loans were issued without any real guarantee of repayment, and now many companies are on the brink of bankruptcy. Even the largest banks are buckling under the strain. Bloomberg reports that several are already preparing requests for Central Bank assistance. However, the head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, insists there is no crisis. Opposition politician Vladimir Milov warns: " Everything in Russia looks calm until suddenly an avalanche of non-payments begins ." Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones are launching new strikes against Russian oil refineries. Since the beginning of the year, 21 of the 38 largest refineries have been attacked, and gasoline prices have now risen by 40%. Fuel coupons have been introduced in occupied Crimea, and small gas stations in Siberia are closing.
