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Influential Ukrainian OSINT analyst Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight team have published the results of a large-scale study on unauthorized desertion in the Russian army. And it shows a sharp increase in deserters in the ranks of Putin’s army.
According to their data, the number of escapes and desertions in the Russian army has increased two to three times in recent months. This is not about isolated incidents: the database contains 13,807 confirmed cases of unauthorized abandonment of a unit, recorded from 2022 to July 2025. The year 2025 has become especially alarming for the Kremlin. By July, the number of registered cases had already reached the level of 2024, indicating a doubling of the desertion rate. Researchers note that while cases of defection were relatively rare at the beginning of the war, the phenomenon is now widespread.
Of the 13,807 cases reviewed by analysts, 11,341 involved contract soldiers, 2,457 were mobilized, and 9 were other categories, including conscripts. Thus, the overwhelming majority of deserters are contract soldiers. An example is the 30th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd combined arms army of the Russian Federation. From April 2023 to March 2025, 1,988 cases of desertion and unauthorized departure were officially recorded there. In less than two years, the number of fugitives is comparable to half of the brigade. The indicator increased especially sharply in 2024-2025. According to analysts, contract soldiers make up 73.6% of deserters in this unit. Mobilized soldiers appear in only 4.38% of cases, but this may be due to their high mortality rate rather than greater discipline.
Separately, a sharp increase in desertions directly on the battlefield is noted: since the summer of 2024, their number has increased more than tenfold. These data highlight the worsening crisis in the troops, despite harsh measures, including extrajudicial executions. Experts emphasize that the registered cases are not short-term absences, but official cases that are classified as criminal offenses in Russia. Another important conclusion concerns the quality of Russian troops. Although Moscow continues to fulfill its plans for recruiting personnel, a growing share of reinforcements comes from prisoners and persons under investigation. This directly affects the combat readiness of the army and the morale of the units. According to the Frontelligence Insight team, the current figures do not yet mean an immediate collapse of the Russian army. However, the rapid growth of desertion shows that even the most severe measures are not able to stop this process. The problem is becoming systemic and deepening with each passing month.
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