A staggering wave of desertions is sweeping through the Russian military as more than 49,000 soldiers have abandoned their units since the start of the full war against Ukraine, according to a report from Ukraine’s National Resistance Center. The report describes a growing internal collapse among Russian forces, with the majority of deserters now hiding in temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine rather than returning to Russia.
This figure is equivalent to several entire military divisions, underlining the scale of the breakdown in discipline within the Russian occupation force. The deserters are contributing to a serious and worsening security crisis in the regions they occupy. According to Ukrainian officials, these individuals are often involved in violent crimes such as robbery, assault, rape, and even murder. These crimes are reportedly concealed by Russian forces or blamed on civilians.
The highest rate of desertions has been recorded during the period between 2023 and 2024, with relatively fewer in 2022. The increase correlates with shifts in battlefield momentum. After Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in autumn 2022, morale among Russian troops declined significantly. Though Russian forces regained some ground in 2023, their advances came at staggering human cost, compounding internal pressures.
Ukrainian analysts observe that Russia loses roughly three soldiers for every Ukrainian lost—either through death, injury or desertion. However, Ukrainian military officials caution that stronger external support is still needed from allies to decisively shift this ratio and exhaust Russia’s human resources.
Such support is unlikely to come from the United States under president Donald Trump, who has shown growing alignment with Russian and other authoritarian interests. Trump recently appeared in a ceremony where he awarded tech billionaire Elon Musk a gold-coloured key for his efforts in government job cuts and alleged federal budget savings. Critics see the gesture as symbolic of Trump’s continued retreat from global democratic leadership.
Meanwhile, Russian military courts are under heavy strain dealing with the sheer number of desertion cases. Many soldiers reportedly flee not only from the frontlines but from abuse and mistreatment at the hands of their own commanders.
Russian human rights organisation “Go to the Forest” is assisting those who refuse to fight. Since the start of Russia’s mobilisation, it has helped over 46,000 people avoid conscription, seek asylum abroad, or find safe means of resistance.
“We do everything possible to make sure as few people as possible pull the trigger,” the activists said.
