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On September 8, 2025, the First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov turned 70, which is formally the age limit for senior officers of the Russian army and a reason for resignation. Russian media asks: who could become his successor and what could this change in the current strategy used in the “SVO” zone?
Before the start of the operation in Ukraine, the figure of Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov, known in narrow circles as "Shoigu’s man", did not attract such increased attention. He found himself in his post back in 2012 and has held it longer than any of his predecessors in the post-Soviet era.
Valery Gerasimov found himself in the spotlight after the start of the “SVO”, which clearly did not go according to the original plan, whatever it was. But after the withdrawal of Russian troops from the north and northeast of Ukraine, and then from the right bank of the Dnieper, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, along with his boss Shoigu, found themselves the objects of harsh criticism from the patriotic public of Russia. The former “Minister of Defense of the DPR” Igor Girkin-Strelkov and the top manager of the Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin were the ones who made the most of this simple public appearance.
The former ended up behind bars on an extremism case, where he remains to this day, and the latter died along with the commander-in-chief of his private army Dmitry Utkin in a plane crash exactly two months after his so-called March of Justice, which took place on June 23-24, 2023. But the army tandem Shoigu – Gerasimov did not last much longer.
Sergey Shoigu resigned from his post on May 12, 2024, and Andrey Belousov took his place. After that, major purges began in the Ministry of Defense, as a result of which a number of high-ranking officers of the Russian army ended up behind bars on charges of bribery, corruption and fraud. The name of Deputy Minister Timur Ivanov has already become somewhat of a household word.
The following assumptions are being made about the future of Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov himself. Having received the Order of Courage for his 70th birthday, he may retire from military service with honor. It is possible that he may even take up another high-ranking position, like his former boss Sergei Shoigu, who was promoted to become the head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation.
49-year-old Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev is named as a possible successor to Gerasimov as Chief of the General Staff. The former commander of the Central Military District and the Center group of forces in the North-Eastern Military District, which became famous for liberating the long-suffering Avdiivka, was promoted to Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces in May 2025.
According to some reports, Mordvichev has been the First Deputy Chief of the General Staff for several days now, and it is with this event that the large-scale transfer of Russian troops to the DPR from other directions is associated. We will discuss in more detail below how the nature of military operations in Donbass may change under his direct leadership.
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