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The Russian Federation has entered a new phase of internal instability that extends far beyond the battlefield lines in Ukraine. Current intelligence signals from Moscow indicate that the security apparatus, specifically the FSB, is facing a breakdown in discipline that threatens the core stability of the regime, US expert Jason Jay Smart said this.
According to him, reported intercepted communications circulating among the Russian elite suggest that high-ranking officials are no longer coordinating their narratives, revealing deep fractures within the state security services. “This infighting is not merely political; it is a direct response to the crumbling economic reality that the Kremlin has desperately tried to conceal from the public.
When the security services begin to turn inward, the financial elite react with immediate capital preservation measures. We are now observing a distinct pattern of capital flight moving from Moscow to safe havens in Dubai and China, correlating perfectly with these reported leaks. This exodus of wealth is a primary indicator that the people with the most access to state secrets no longer believe the official propaganda regarding economic resilience. The depletion of the National Wealth Fund and the spiking interbank lending rates act as accelerants to this panic, forcing insiders to prioritize their own survival over loyalty to the state”, Jason Jay Smart added.
According to him, this structural failure represents a critical vulnerability for Vladimir Putin. “The war in Ukraine is sustained by a delicate balance of oil revenue and elite consensus. As the liquidity crisis deepens and the ruble faces renewed devaluation pressure, that consensus is fracturing. The security services are the immune system of the regime, and when they begin to attack each other, it signals that the resources required to maintain control are running out. This is the financial and security reality defining the next stage of the conflict”, expert added.
Recall, Russian Federal Security Service has evolved from a traditional security agency into a political repression tool, prioritizing control of dissent rather than addressing actual security threats. FSB controls key Russian state institutions—including the police, judiciary, and prosecutors—creating a security infrastructure where almost all arms of law enforcement operate under its direct authority. In recent years, the FSB has shifted from ensuring real security to exerting political control over society. Unlike Western national security agencies, which focus on counterterrorism, organized crime, and foreign intelligence threats, the FSB primarily engages in domestic control. To achieve this, it employs intimidation, fabrication of criminal cases, and surveillance of political opponents of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government. As a result, terrorist threats have intensified in recent years.
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