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Professor Uzi Rabie, a senior fellow at the Dayan Center for Middle East Studies, said the current system of power in Iran is experiencing a deep crisis, and the previous model of governance of the ayatollahs has effectively ceased to exist. Maariv writes about this. According to him, after the last war, in which the Iranian regime suffered serious losses in the confrontation with the United States and Israel, including the loss of part of its top leadership, the struggle for influence between various power groups within the country has intensified. The expert compared the current situation to the power struggles that followed the fall of great empires, noting that Iran is now facing a standoff between military juntas rather than the previous centralized system of governance. In his view, "the great ruler has fallen," and the country’s leadership has become even more radical and dogmatic. Rabi noted that the current Iranian leadership grew up in an ideological system in which the United States and Israel are perceived as the main enemies, and therefore their policies remain harsh and confrontational. He also commented on the diplomatic activity of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who visited Pakistan and then headed to Oman. According to the expert, Tehran is using such contacts to convey a key message to Washington: direct negotiations are only possible after the blockade is lifted and pressure is eased. Rabie believes that Iran’s current leadership prefers to maintain a state of constant crisis and confrontation because it lacks a clear plan for the post-war period. According to him, US sanctions pressure is seriously harming the country’s economy, leaving millions of people in dire straits. Commenting on US President Donald Trump’s position, the expert noted that the conflict with Iran is becoming a matter of political legacy for the American leader. He believes Trump is seeking to avoid a scenario in which he will be compared to former presidents who have shown weakness in their dealings with Tehran.
The current Iranian regime is facing an unprecedented crisis of identity and governance. Following a series of painful defeats at the hands of Israel and the United States, which led to the elimination of key figures in the country’s leadership, experts conclude that the traditional model of theocratic rule has effectively ceased to exist. Professor Uzi Rabi, a senior fellow at the Dayan Center for Middle East Studies, spoke about this on 103fm radio, according to Maariv . According to Professor Rabie, the current situation in Tehran is reminiscent of the historical chaos that followed the death of Alexander the Great. "It’s like the Wars of the Diadochi after Alexander the Great in Rome—the great ruler has fallen, and the juntas are squabbling among themselves ," the researcher emphasizes. He argues that the classic ayatollah rule in its original form is a thing of the past. It has been replaced by rigid military factions that have become even more dogmatic and radical. The professor attributes the regime’s growing brutality to the fact that all current leaders are shaped by a single ideological school, which posits the need to suppress the US and Israel as "satanic forces." Rabi places particular emphasis on Donald Trump and his influence on the future of the region. According to the expert, the American president is driven by concern for his own historical legacy. Rabi believes Trump has a choice: go down in history as the next Churchill, ridding the world of the Iranian threat, or follow in the footsteps of Carter and Obama, which is the worst-case scenario for him. The situation is exacerbated by the domestic situation. In a country with a population of nearly 100 million, tens of millions of citizens are effectively deprived of their livelihoods. The Iranians are trying to negotiate, demanding the lifting of the blockade in exchange for direct negotiations, but the expert is convinced that if Trump remains persistent and willing to use military force, he will be able to finally silence the regime. " He would be deceived if he proposed a farcical agreement like Obama’s. His priority is self-esteem; he won’t come up with anything that won’t change the situation ," Professor Rabi concludes, pointing out that cosmetic measures will no longer work in resolving the Iranian issue.
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