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Putin acknowledged that Russia managed to seize less than 1% of Ukrainian territory in 2025, while the country itself is experiencing a fuel and economic crisis. Under these circumstances, 2026 could become a crisis year for the Kremlin. Military analyst, veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and retired Ukrainian Armed Forces Major Oleksiy Getman reported this in a chat on Glavred.
He noted that, despite the beliefs of many, internal upheavals in Russia are inevitable – as happened with the Soviet Union, the collapse of which no one foresaw several months before its collapse. "It’s hard to say anything is brewing in Russia right now, but we’ve destroyed more than half of Russia’s oil refineries, and the crisis is gradually gaining momentum in Russia. However, for now, this crisis isn’t on a scale that would bring Russians out onto the streets. They’re afraid of that, because even solo pickets with the sign "Peace" on an A4 piece of paper are banned in Russia," the analyst notes. But it is also inevitable that the people, fed up with the government, will soon take to the streets.
Getman noted that a totalitarian system operates in Russia, but it cannot exist indefinitely in the face of a sharp deterioration in living standards.
A change in power in the country, he said, depends not on the population, but on the elites, who will sooner or later begin to react when faced with serious financial difficulties caused by sanctions and declining revenues from oil and gas sales.
"The situation in Russia is already critical, and a crisis isn’t that far off. If this process continues, and Putin doesn’t unleash another war against the Baltic states or launch some missile or drone attack against European countries, distracting the Russian population from domestic problems, then it’s quite possible that 2026 will be a year of power crisis in Russia," he concludes.
Recall, the USSR had a significantly more powerful economy than today’s Russia, but even this didn’t save it from collapse. The collapse of the Soviet Union was primarily due to economic reasons, particularly the sharp drop in energy prices. Now, according to Andriy Novak, Chairman of the Committee of Economists of Ukraine, Russia finds itself in an even more difficult situation and has effectively reached a dead end. The economist explains that the Kremlin will be forced to make some major sacrifice to maintain even a chance of survival: either end the war, which Putin is incapable of, or cut funding for other budget items. However, the latter option would lead to an economic collapse within the country, which would severely impact both the population and businesses. Novak emphasized that even at the time of its collapse, the Soviet economy remained stronger than the current Russian one.
"This is the diagnosis that can be made for the Russian economy today," Novak said.
A critical moment for the Russian economy and energy system will inevitably arise if Ukraine continues to strike oil refineries. Economists predict that, with constant financial expenditures and money printing, Russia will be able to keep the economy "on the printing press" for no more than a year.
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