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Russian authorities are expressing concern over the potential consequences of the return home of thousands of soldiers and former prisoners who fought in the war against Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service, Moscow acknowledges that demobilization could lead to a surge in crime and the destabilization of the very system built around Putin. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Kremlin is already drawing parallels with the 1990s, when Afghan war veterans formed gangs and criminal groups. Today, the situation could repeat itself, only on a much larger scale.
"The Kremlin estimates that veterans could become a catalyst for criminal and political destabilization, capable of undermining the system built around personal loyalty to Putin," the statement said. The reasons for concern are quite obvious. Among those returning from the front, many have suffered severe psychological trauma or have a history of violence. Added to this is the striking contrast between the pay they received at the front and the poverty of everyday life: salaries and bonuses during the war are several times higher than the average Russian income. Returning to a reality of low wages and a devastated economy, many veterans could become the source of a new social upheaval. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that tens of thousands of convicts have been drafted into the army . According to the Russian Penitentiary Service, between 120,000 and 180,000 prisoners have been mobilized . A significant number of them have already returned to the cities, and with them, the number of serious crimes has risen sharply. Since 2023 alone, nearly a thousand cases of murder and beating resulting in death have been filed with Russian military courts. The number of convictions for such crimes has been growing annually: from 38 in 2022 to 377 in the first nine months of 2025 alone. Instead of addressing the problem, the authorities chose the familiar path of intensifying repression . The Penitentiary Service was authorized to more actively use special means against prisoners: batons, stun guns, water cannons, and even service dogs. Formally, this was to "protect the staff," but in reality, it was to suppress those who no longer feared the authorities. Ukrainian intelligence estimates that the return of people accustomed to violence and impunity could become an internal time bomb for the Kremlin. "If at the beginning these veterans were the support of the regime, then over time they could become the force that will destroy Russia from within," analysts note.
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