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As The Financial Times reports , serious health problems among Chechen leaders threaten the Kremlin’s long-term plans, and those of Putin personally, in the region. Ramzan Kadyrov, who has held Chechnya under tight control for nearly 20 years, is gravely ill. His likely successor, 18-year-old son Adam, has also retired from politics after sustaining serious injuries in a car accident. As a result, the entire succession plan that has underpinned Moscow’s stability has been called into question.
For years, Putin allowed Kadyrov to rule Chechnya as if it were his personal fiefdom. Murders, torture, disappearances, LGBT persecution, rampant corruption, and clan-based enrichment were all recorded in the republic. In return, the Kremlin received the most important thing: complete loyalty. Kadyrov sent Chechen units to fight against Ukraine and harshly suppressed any hint of separatism or resistance. It was this model that allowed Moscow to avoid a new conflict in the Caucasus after two devastating Chechen wars. Since 2023, reports have been regularly emerging about Kadyrov’s grave health. In December, Novaya Gazeta Evropa reported his hospitalization in Moscow. Ukrainian media later reported kidney failure, attributing it to the sharp reduction in his public appearances. Although there is no official confirmation, experts note that his appearance, slow movements, gait, and constant use of a cane speak for themselves. Kadyrov’s attempts to demonstratively claim he is "healthy" only fuel suspicions.
Political scientists emphasize that, given the war against Ukraine, Russia simply lacks the resources to deal with another crisis. All combat-ready forces are deployed to the front, while a large number of armed men and competing elites remain in Chechnya. If Kadyrov weakens or leaves office, the Kremlin could face a power vacuum and a new round of instability—the scenario Moscow fears most. Kadyrov’s system, sold for years as a "guarantee of stability," has become tied to the health of one man and his family. And if this knot begins to unravel, the Kremlin may simply not have the strength to tighten it, the publication notes.
Recall, The situation in Chechnya is rapidly escalating amid rumors of its leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, being fatally ill. The recent car accident involving the Chechen leader’s youngest son, Adam, may be a battle for succession. " Kadyrov is still alive, but the clan war over his succession has already begun. I said in a recent broadcast that Ramzan’s attempt to make Adam his heir will not please many in the Chechen elite; his chances of gaining power, or even simply surviving in this situation, are extremely doubtful. Everything happened even faster than I thought. Most likely, the accident that nearly killed Adam was orchestrated by those who want to prevent him from inheriting his father’s ‘throne,’ other contenders for power. War within Kadyrov’s elite is becoming inevitable ," Russian opposition figure and sociologist Igor Eidman wrote
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