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The Kremlin is increasingly preparing for a possible end to the war against Ukraine, but Russian dictator Vladimir Putin himself has yet to demonstrate a clear plan for exiting the conflict. Despite Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow and growing domestic discontent, the Russian government remains virtually paralyzed by fear of a possible regime collapse. Journalist Owen Matthews writes about this in his column for The Telegraph.
The author notes that the massive Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow and the Moscow region sent a serious signal to the Kremlin. He argues that Ukraine is already capable of striking Russia’s most heavily defended areas, and the potential for such attacks will only grow.
Following the attacks, Russian politician Dmitry Rogozin acknowledged that Ukrainian forces would continue to seek out weaknesses in Russian defenses. "Their numbers will grow, and their routes and tactics will evolve," Rogozin wrote.
At the same time, as Matthews notes, Putin’s behavior shows almost no signs of a willingness to compromise. After the May 9 parade, the Russian president merely hinted that the war was "nearing its end," but added that a "considerable amount of preparatory work" still lay ahead.
According to the author, the main driving force behind the continuation of the war is no longer Russia’s state interests, but Putin’s personal stubbornness, who refuses to acknowledge the failure of his initial plans.
Former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev believes the Russian elite has fallen into a trap created by the system itself. Due to the total control of the intelligence services, trust has disappeared within the ruling circles, and thus the possibility of organizing any kind of conspiracy against Putin. "The system in Russia today is more reminiscent of Nazi Germany than the USSR," Bondarev notes.
According to him, the entire legitimacy of Russian power rests on one person, and Putin’s removal could lead to the complete collapse of the system.
At the same time, the journalist draws attention to leaked documents from the Kremlin indicating that the team of Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko is already working on scenarios for "post-war Russia." Specifically, officials are preparing propaganda narratives designed to explain to Russians the end of the war without achieving the stated goals.
The Kremlin is also likely considering mechanisms to control radical supporters of the war, who might perceive the end of the conflict as a "betrayal."
However, despite these processes, Putin, as Matthews writes, remains isolated even from his own inner circle and does not demonstrate a real vision of how to end the war against Ukraine. It should be noted that the head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence, Kaupo Rozin, stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has few options for resolving the war in Ukraine, as his armed forces are unable to make significant advances on the battlefield, and Western sanctions are draining his resources.
Earlier, the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center changed its polling methodology in an effort to salvage Putin’s approval rating. Thus, it republished its weekly ranking of politicians, which noted an increase in trust ratings for Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to the rating, Putin’s approval rating supposedly stood at 66.8%, but ratings are now measured using a "combination of telephone and door-to-door surveys."
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