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“The safe rear is officially gone, and the Kremlin has physically ran out of the fuel, money, and logistics needed to continue the war. This is not a stalemate; it is a mathematical collapse of the Russian economy and military machine. We are now witnessing the final phase of the conflict, where deep strikes on critical infrastructure, specifically the burning Novoshakhtinsk refinery and the offline Orenburg gas plant, prove that Moscow has lost the physical capacity to defend its own territory”. US expert, based in Ukraine, Jason Jay Smart said this.
According to him, the leaked reality Putin is hiding is that liquid cash reserves have dropped to just $54.21 billion, signaling that state bankruptcy is imminent. “Crucially, Russia cannot repair these facilities because sanctions have blocked the specific foreign-certified components required to fix them. As a result, the damage is permanent.
The dilemma is now fatal: Putin must either abandon the front to protect the rear, or let the energy grid burn to hold the line. He cannot do both. With the logistics broken, the fuel network cut, and the financial buffer gone, the war machine is bankrupt”, he said.
Recall, with the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearing the four-year mark, Russian military spending has indeed risen to post-Soviet highs. But in 2025, signs have increasingly pointed to a slowdown in the war industry, raising questions about how long Moscow can sustain its current level of military output under sanctions and financial strain. Russia’s military expenditures have risen nearly 300% since the pre-war year of 2021, increasing from 3.6 trillion rubles or $39 billion to 13.5 trillion rubles or $147 billion earmarked for 2025. Drawn by higher salaries, workers from other sectors have poured into defense enterprises. Large manufacturers like the Kalashnikov Concern and the Alabuga drone factory have advertised hundreds of vacancies, with some shop-floor jobs offering monthly pay of around 150,000 rubles or $1,870, nearly double the national median wage. Official estimates show that 600,000-700,000 people joined the military-industrial complex in 2023-24, bringing total employment in the sector to about 3.8 million, or roughly 5% of the workforce.
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