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Ukraine’s military campaign against Russian oil refineries appears to be gaining momentum. Recently, another attack took out one of the country’s largest refineries, Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery. As a result, the refinery stopped accepting raw materials.
The refinery processes up to 300,000 barrels per day and is one of the main suppliers of fuel to domestic and foreign markets. Even a temporary shutdown could negatively impact supplies to these destinations.
With limited domestic storage for finished products, the shutdown means fewer gasoline and diesel supplies to domestic markets and more crude for export, likely through western Russian ports. Exports are therefore expected to rise sharply this month as the refinery and others remain under repair.
With Russia’s refining network under constant pressure and crude flows being diverted, the coming weeks will test how quickly Moscow can resolve its fuel supply logistics problems, and whether Ukraine’s attacks on Russia will begin to impact the global oil balance down the chain, not just Russia’s domestic supply.
Russia’s fuel crisis is deepening. Moscow has introduced gasoline limits and is being forced to urgently buy fuel from Belarus, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
"Russia is forced to urgently purchase fuel from Belarus, which is ramping up supplies and taking advantage of the situation," the intelligence service said.
It noted that after Crimea, Zabaykalsky Krai, and Primorye, the gasoline shortage has now reached the Kuril Islands. As of August 20, restrictions were introduced there as well: a maximum of 10 liters per person, with priority given to security services, emergency services, and businesses. "For the population, this is yet another confirmation that the fuel crisis is rapidly worsening," intelligence added. Earlier, the media reported that Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries disabled part of Russia’s refining capacity, leaving the market with an acute gasoline shortage. Since the beginning of July, Ukraine has struck at least four large refineries in Russia. According to experts, the current campaign differs from previous ones in that the strikes are targeting enterprises in a key region, which could put them out of operation for a long time or even forever.
Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that in 2024 the attacks had been numerous but scattered, usually limited to a single plant, and that the damage had been quickly repaired. According to broker Finam, at least 10% of Russia’s refining capacity has been knocked out. Strikes on railway infrastructure in the central part of the country have exacerbated the situation, causing train delays and fuel supply disruptions.
To curb price increases, the Russian government completely banned gasoline exports on July 28. But even this did not help to fully satisfy domestic demand.
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