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It is the failure in agriculture and the growth of discontent in the rear that could become a turning point for Russia in the war against Ukraine. Russian economist and Doctor of Economics Igor Lipsits told Glavred about this in an interview.
According to Lipsitz, there are several signals that will indicate that the Russian economy can no longer withstand the strain, and the Kremlin will have to sit down at the negotiating table.
He explained that the war with Ukraine is exhausting, and such conflicts usually end when neither side is able to achieve a military advantage – the front line stabilizes, and the fighting loses momentum. A similar situation was observed, in particular, during the Korean War. In addition, serious problems may arise within Russia itself, which will also contribute to the search for ways to end the war.
"Let’s go back, say, to the times of the First World War. It cannot be said that in 1917 the Russian army was in a bad position on the fronts of the First World War. No, there were quite normal supply options, there were weapons, the army was fed normally, and there was no total collapse or destruction of the system. But in the rear, fluctuations began. As you remember, there were interruptions in food supplies in St. Petersburg, and this is where the February Revolution began. And then everything went awry… About the same thing can happen in modern Russia. And, by the way, this can already be accurately predicted," the economist points out.
The economist noted that he had warned several months ago that autumn could be difficult for Russia due to the situation in the agricultural sector. The first reports on the harvest already indicate problems – the volumes are significantly lower than last year, in some places the harvest is only a third of last year’s.
According to Lipsits, this could lead to Russia losing its status as not only the largest, but even a significant wheat exporter. The country could face food shortages, which would cause discontent among the population. In such a situation, ending the war could become a tool for the Kremlin to reduce social tension.
"And then ending the war could become the trump card that Putin can present to the population. Therefore, I would very carefully monitor what will happen in agriculture and with the harvest in Russia this fall. There could be a really unpleasant situation there – and it is quite real," he summed up.
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