NATO is ramping up defense spending, with all members finally hitting the 2% target and now pushing toward a much bigger 5% goal, though not everyone in Europe is on board. Zuzanna Jurek points out that countries closer to Russia, like Poland and the Baltics, are way more motivated to spend big than countries farther away. She also says U.S. support for Ukraine could get shaky, especially with rising tensions in the Middle East pulling attention and resources elsewhere. A huge shift in warfare is happening too—drones are now central, and Ukraine has gone from needing help to actually leading and advising others on drone tech. Jurek explains that smaller groups like the Joint Expeditionary Force can act faster than NATO because they don’t need full consensus from all members. Meanwhile, even with sanctions, Russia is still making money from oil thanks to high prices and loopholes like shadow fleets. Overall, she makes it clear that Europe is stepping up militarily, but divisions inside NATO and global conflicts could complicate things going forward.
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