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US President Donald Trump is considering targeted strikes on Iran’s security forces and leaders to encourage protesters, Reuters reported, citing multiple sources. Israeli and Arab officials have said air strikes would not topple the theocratic regime.
Trump wants to create the conditions for regime change in Iran, where protests across the country were brutally suppressed earlier this month, killing thousands, according to two U.S. sources familiar with the discussions.
Trump wants to instill in protesters the belief that they can overthrow the government by targeting commanders and institutions responsible for the violence , the sources said.
Another option Trump aides are discussing is a larger strike for lasting impact, particularly strikes on ballistic missiles that could hit US allies in the Middle East, or on nuclear enrichment programs.
Another source said that Trump has not yet made a final decision on whether to take military action.
This week, a US aircraft carrier and its accompanying warships arrived in the Middle East, expanding Trump’s ability to take military action, having previously threatened to intervene in Iran over the violence.
Four Arab officials, three Western diplomats and a senior Western source told Reuters that such strikes would not only bring people to the streets, but could also further weaken a movement already shaken by bloody repression.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute, said that without large-scale defections from the armed forces in Iran, "the protests, even if they are heroic, will not succeed."
According to the analyst, the biggest risk is that Iran will experience a fragmentation similar to that in the early days of Syria, with rival factions and provinces beginning to fight for territory and resources.
A senior Iranian official told the agency that " Tehran is preparing for a military confrontation, but at the same time is using diplomatic channels," adding that Washington is not open to diplomacy.
Trump, on the Truth Social network, expressed his hope that Iran would soon sit at the negotiating table.
Israel says it does not believe the airstrikes will topple the Islamic republic, an Israeli official told Reuters.
"If you want to overthrow the regime, you have to put your foot down there ," the source said, adding that even if the US kills Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran will replace him with a new leader.
Only external pressure and organized internal opposition can change Iran’s political trajectory, the official said.
Iran is rapidly strengthening security measures amid growing fears of a new military conflict with the US and Israel. According to the Financial Times , authorities are preparing for a possible attack and are on high alert. President Masoud Pezeshkian has delegated expanded powers to regional authorities to ensure the state continues to function even during the attack. Governors can now make decisions independently, interact with the courts, and expedite the import of essential goods. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that further strikes could threaten oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy route. Meanwhile, internet restrictions remain in place amid domestic protests . According to FT sources, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is in a fortified underground shelter.
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