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The fall of the Bashar al-Assad and Nicolás Maduro regimes , as well as Russia’s inability to provide military assistance to its allies – Iran and Venezuela – demonstrate that Moscow is an unreliable partner. The CSTO has effectively collapsed, and the Kursk operation demonstrated that no one is rushing to help Russia.
Alexander Leonov, executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Applied Political Research "Penta," explained to Channel 24 that, by losing influence in the Middle East, Latin America, and Central Asia, Russia is degrading to the level of a regional power completely dependent on China. Kremlin propagandists are publicly admitting that Putin could suffer the same fate as his allies, indicating panic within Putin’s camp over the rapid erosion of allies and the shifting geopolitical balance.
"Russia has proven to be a completely unreliable ally—the very countries and regimes that relied on it have discovered this. Despite signing military aid agreements with Venezuela and Iran, Russia refused to fulfill its obligations when Iran attempted to activate the relevant option. This is a serious signal to both North Korea and China: Russia will not come to their aid in their hour of need. Moscow understands this, but is trying to hide it," Leonov said.
Putin lives in constant fear: he avoids traveling even to loyal countries due to an ISS warrant, and has refused to visit Brazil and South Africa despite guarantees of immunity. His greatest nightmares are arrest and transfer to a third country, or physical elimination, as has happened to his allies.
"Events in Venezuela and Iran, where the top leadership was eliminated, apparently not without betrayal within his inner circle, will only increase his paranoia. Putin’s suspicions will spread to his inner circle, so it’s entirely possible we’ll see more strange suicides or arrests around him. But most importantly, Russia is increasingly losing its ability to build alliances," Leonov explained.
As a result of the full-scale invasion, the Collective Security Treaty Organization effectively collapsed: during the operation in the Kursk region, no country came to Russia’s aid, and it was forced to turn to North Korea. Losing influence in the Middle East, Latin America, Central Asia, and the Caucasus, Russia is degrading to the level of a regional power completely dependent on China.
Politico say that the last time the United States and Israel bombed Iran, a reporter asked Vladimir Putin how he’d respond if Iran’s supreme leader were killed in the attack.
“I don’t even want to discuss it,” the Russian president replied.
Less than nine months later, after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died in an Israeli-led, U.S.-backed targeted strike on Saturday, Putin had little choice but to respond.
The assassination will have triggered two of Putin’s deepest instincts: deep-rooted paranoia about his own longevity, and a drive for political survival defined by victory over Ukraine — whatever the cost.
Both were on display in a short statement posted on the Kremlin’s website, in which Putin denounced the killing of Khamenei as “murder … committed in cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law.”
It was a stronger reaction than that after the capture earlier this year of another erstwhile Russian ally, Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro. And yet Putin, notably, did not name the countries behind the killing. In Russian circles, the death of Khamenei evoked comparisons with another dictator’s downfall. Recent events will only have deepened Putin’s paranoia.
The toppling of two Russian allies — Maduro and Khamenei — in rapid succession prompted some pro-Kremlin commentators to break what has been an informal rule since Donald Trump’s return to the White House: Avoid openly criticizing the U.S. or its president.
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