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Ukraine’s long‑range drones have shifted from front‑line harassment to deep strikes against Russia’s refinery spine, forcing Ryazan to roughly half output, Novokuibyshevsk to halt, and Saratov to suspend operations after large fires. Together these plants represent a major slice of Rosneft’s network, and the timing compounds a broader squeeze: offline primary capacity peaked this summer while product exports dipped. Moscow is trying to backfill by pushing an extra ~200,000 bpd of crude via western ports, but crude sells for less value‑add than products and sanctions keep margins thin. The same week, a strike on the Unecha node of the Druzhba system underscored that pipeline control points—not just stacks and towers—are targets. Net effect: fuel delivery to the front grows more fragile, air‑defense units must spread thin, and the budget bleeds from higher discounts and repair costs. The next 2–4 weeks hinge on repairs, repeat strikes, and product flows.
Sources:
Reuters — Ryazan halves capacity; Novokuibyshevsk halted (Aug 4–5, 2025): https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-ryazan-oil-refinery-halves-refining-capacity-after-drone-attacks-sources-2025-08-04/ ; https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-novokuibyshevsk-oil-refinery-halted-operations-after-drone-attacks-2025-08-04/
The Moscow Times — Saratov refinery strike; Rosneft network context: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/08/11/ukrainian-drone-strike-halts-operations-at-rosneft-refinery-in-saratov-a90168
Rosneft — Saratov refinery capacity (7 Mtpa): https://www.rosneft.com/about/Rosneft_today/Operational_structure/Refining/sarnpz/
Reuters data via Moscow Times — Russia to boost crude exports by ~200 kb/d in Aug: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/08/07/russia-to-boost-oil-exports-as-drone-strikes-disrupt-refining-capacity-a90123
Reuters — Offline primary capacity & product exports (-6.6%): https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-oil-refineries-boost-august-runs-after-drone-attacks-2025-08-12/
IEA Oil Market Report (June 2025) — May revenues ~$12.6bn; exports down: https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-june-2025
Bloomberg — Unecha pumping station/Druzhba node struck: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-13/ukraine-drone-attacks-hit-russia-s-druzhba-oil-pipeline-node
Kyiv Independent / Kyiv Post — Corroboration of refinery hits & Unecha: https://kyivindependent.com/2-russian-oil-refineries-cut-or-halt-production-after-ukrainian-drone-attacks-reuters-reports/ ; https://www.kyivpost.com/post/58027
Upstream — Pipeline node risk & routing detail: https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/ukraine-drone-strike-hits-key-russian-oil-pipeline-hub/2-1-1698095
