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Following a drone strike in Tuapse, massive fires broke out —the city is shrouded in smoke, and online talk of an "apocalypse" is rife. Meanwhile, Russian authorities are attempting to conceal the true consequences of the attack. What is currently known about the real consequences of attack on Tuapse? Charter97 media outlet spoke with retired Ukrainian Armed Forces Colonel, military expert, and pilot instructor Roman Svitan about this. Expert says that the strike directly targeted the oil refinery and its fuel storage tanks—they were completely destroyed. “The primary objective of the attack was achieved: the refinery was completely shut down, and some of the tanks were set ablaze. Two tanks were definitely destroyed, but others are still burning. At this point, the oil depot that supplied the port and refinery has stopped operations, but there’s still a pier there that can still pump oil. I think there will likely be several more attacks on this location to completely shut it down—the oil depot, the refinery, and the pier. To completely stop the oil transshipment”, he added. İn this case Kremlin is effectively hushing up the scale of the disaster, despite numerous videos from the city. According to Roman Svitan Putin doesn’t want any informational messages before May 9th, so he’ll be minimizing the flow of information about Tuapse wherever possible. “So, naturally, the dictator will remain silent, lest he be asked: Why did you even launch this operation? So that Tuapse would burn, the Caucasus would be covered in oil, and the Black Sea coast would be contaminated with petroleum products?" This is a major problem for Putin right now, and he’ll remain silent until May 9. After May 9, depending on the situation, all these issues will be raised. But for now, before the "sticker" date, he’s definitely not going to reveal his miscalculations”, he says. In this case Z-bloggers are reporting a shortage of missiles for the Pantsir missile system and "gaps" in the air defense system. How systemic is this problem, and how could it impact the protection of strategic facilities deep within Russia? Roman Svitan replies this: "There really isn’t enough missiles for the Pantsir missiles. The Russian Army has reached maximum production of these missiles, but their use has also increased. Since the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a large number of drones, we’ve increased their number severalfold. Naturally, there aren’t enough missiles for all the drones—that was the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ primary objective." There’s a concept called the system saturation coefficient, which means the system fires all its missiles, and while it’s reloading, it can still perform its combat mission. The Ukrainian Air Force is currently geared specifically for this type of "hack" against Russian air defenses. The goal is to produce a large number of aircraft, several times more than the number of missiles for the Russian Pantsir missiles. Therefore, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ tactics were well-chosen, and they are producing the desired results. The Russian army cannot quickly increase production of air defense missiles—it would require building a new plant, which is unrealistic in such a short term. He says that Novorossiysk will be the next target. "Yes, Novorossiysk will be next. But besides Tuapse and Novorossiysk, there’s also the port of Taman, the port of Kavkaz, and the port of Temryuk in the Sea of Azov. This entire group will be destroyed, so it’s only a matter of time. Russia will be expelled from the Black Sea."
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