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Russian fleet has fallen into “death spiral”; Black Sea Fleet is forced to retreat from positions

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The war in Ukraine has been a severe test for the Russian Navy, and it has failed. Reuben Johnson, Research Director at the Kazimierz Pulaski Foundation from Poland, writes about this in an opinion piece for 19fortyfive .
According to him, the Russian Navy is experiencing its greatest crisis since World War II, as the conflict exposed systemic weaknesses in Moscow’s naval forces. The analyst emphasizes that Ukraine, lacking major warships, dealt a crushing defeat to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, sinking the flagship cruiser Moskva and forcing the rest of the fleet to retreat from its bases in Sevastopol.
Johnson stresses that these events highlight chronic problems with crew training, equipment maintenance and technological failures that have permanently undermined the global prestige of the Russian fleet and changed the balance of power in European seas. One of the most humiliating episodes was the sinking of the cruiser Moskva on April 13, 2022. It was the largest Russian warship sunk in combat since World War II. The analyst notes that the event exposed multiple vulnerabilities: gaps in air defense systems, some of which were malfunctioning during the attack.
The analyst is convinced that the sinking of the Moskva is not an "isolated incident," but a symptom of systemic problems. Over the past three years, Ukraine has destroyed three large surface combatants of the Russian Navy and significantly damaged two submarines. As a result, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is now forced to retreat to the most remote accessible naval base in Novorossiysk.
The Russian Navy’s losses aren’t limited to equipment. The Russian Navy is home to an elite force—the Russian Marine Corps, whose numbers have declined from 150,000 in 2021 to 119,000 in 2025. This parallels losses in another elite unit of the Russian Army—the Airborne Forces (VDV), which have fallen from 45,000 to 35,000.
Particularly humiliating for Russia is the attack on the Black Sea Fleet’s central and reserve command centers in 2024, resulting in the deaths of a significant number of officers. This is further evidence of the fleet’s inability to protect its key bases and personnel.
"This is further evidence of the Navy’s inability to protect its critical bases and the personnel who serve them," the analyst writes.
According to Johnson, these events indicate that the Navy has suffered the most among all branches of the Russian armed forces. He believes that the nominal number of losses specifically for the Navy doesn’t tell the full story, but the humiliating retreat to Novorossiysk and systemic failures point to a "death spiral" for the Russian Navy that is difficult to escape.
The Russian Navy is still a formidable force and is dangerous to any Navy that would engage with it. However, unlike during the Cold War when only one nation had a chance at defeating the Soviet Navy, there are now many nations capable of standing a chance at holding their own against the Russian Navy. Russia has seemingly understood that their blue water navy is no longer competitive and instead they want to build up a more powerful regional green water navy. They’ve begun producing more frigates and corvettes, and their larger cruisers and older destroyers are likely receiving less maintenance funding as a result.
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