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Concerns over strikes on Russian territory have, for the first time since the start of the full-scale war, become more worrying for Russian citizens than general frontline news, according to Russian media. During a sociological survey conducted by the Obshchestvennoye Mnenie Foundation, 18% of Russians named Ukrainian strikes as the most important topic of the past week. Meanwhile, only 16% of respondents considered the so-called special military operation to be the main issue.
According to sociologist analyst Volodymyr Zvonovsky, the indicator for "strikes on Russian territory" has, for the first time since the start of the war, exceeded interest in the war as a whole. Interest in strikes on Russian territory began to grow significantly among Russian residents in the second year of the war, when drones started regularly reaching Belgorod, and later even Moscow. In July 2023, this topic was considered the main issue by 3% to 8% of respondents. After the large-scale strike on Belgorod in January 2024, the figure stood at 7%.
In summer last year, amid disruptions at Russian capital airports, the share rose to 8%.
A new wave of concern began in the spring this year.
In mid-April, interest stood at 6%, and by the end of the month, it had sharply jumped to 15%, compared to 17%, who were more focused on the frontline. Internal contradictions in the Russian Federation have been intensifying recently due to the prolonged war against Ukraine.
In the fifth year of the full-scale invasion, distrust in the actions of Russian leader Vladimir Putin has noticeably grown among both elites and society. Z-propagandists and Instagram celebrities are openly criticizing the Kremlin. The Russian army’s "victories" are becoming a subject of ridicule, while the economy continues sliding downward. For the first time since 2023, economic decline has been recorded due to exhaustion of reserves, while the lack of significant battlefield victories has become obvious to everyone. Total bans, internet shutdowns, and Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian rear areas have destroyed the comfortable everyday life of ordinary people, provoking public criticism of authorities. Analysts predict two main scenarios — further tightening of restrictions following the Iranian model, or the beginning of a new Time of Troubles. Commentators note that Russian elites are beginning to see the removal of Putin as a way to save the system itself. "I hope they will pay for this with their lives. Otherwise, this is complete f*ck madness," one popular Z-channel said. Other propagandists reacted in a similar tone, with a general message that "demilitarization of Ukraine has reached a point where Kyiv now decides whether we hold a parade or not."
Complaints from Russian ultra-patriots demanding to "fight for real" and accusing Putin of not being bloodthirsty enough are, of course, nothing new. Spiritual leader of this movement, Igor Strelkov-Girkin, received four years in a penal colony because of such narratives.
But by April-May 2026, as many observers in Russia and especially abroad note, a consensus is emerging inside the aggressor state around the idea that "life cannot go on like this." And this view is shared, each in their own way, by radical Z-propagandists, representatives of Russian elites, big business, and even politically indifferent ordinary people who, during the fifth year of full-scale war, had remained "outside politics." Speculation about the rapid and inevitable collapse of Russia has circulated in the Ukrainian information space since 2014, following the first wave of Russian aggression. Many argued that any empire, especially one as internally fragile as Russia, would inevitably fall apart. And all this is happening against the backdrop of more and more restrictions introduced under the slogan of "strengthening security." In reality, however, restrictions keep increasing while security keeps decreasing. This breaks the regime’s compromise with the population, described as: "You cannot oppose war, but you are allowed to stay outside it."
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